Coronavirus news

[James S. Rustad]

Pastor Fienen:
Closing schools cost our nation's children in educational, social, and emotional development. When one considers the increase in child and teen suicides during these lock downs, it cost children's lives.

Me:
No proof of any of this. Pure speculation, based on bias.

Want to retract that "pure speculation" statement?

Sixty-four percent of public schools reported that the pandemic played a major role to students being behind grade level to start the school year.
More than half of public schools utilized high-dosage tutoring to support pandemic-related learning recovery.
...
Seventy percent of public schools reported that the percentage of students who have sought mental health services increased since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Twenty-nine percent of public schools reported that the percentage of staff who have sought mental health services increased since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Fifty-six percent of public schools reported they moderately or strongly agree that their school is able to effectively provide mental health services to all students in need.
...
More than 8 in 10 public schools have seen stunted behavioral and socioemotional development in their students because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Minor offenses, such as tardiness and classroom disruptions, are the most frequently cited illicit behaviors that have increased in part due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Who are these people with these horrible statistics?

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting and analyzing data related to education in the U.S. and other nations. NCES is located within the U.S. Department of Education and the Institute of Education Sciences. NCES fulfills a Congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze, and report complete statistics on the condition of American education; conduct and publish reports; and review and report on education activities internationally.

[Brian Stoffregen]

What was incorrect about the public policy decisions? Is an overabundance of caution "incorrect"?

Yes. Per the definition of “over-“

So, if a fund drive goes over the goal amount, it's "incorrect"? Or, is it a welcomed bonus? A plus?

[Matt Hummel]

What was incorrect about the public policy decisions? Is an overabundance of caution "incorrect"?

Yes. Per the definition of “over-“

So, if a fund drive goes over the goal amount, it's "incorrect"? Or, is it a welcomed bonus? A plus?

If in order to save 100 people from death by Covid you cause  more than 100 deaths of despair, then an overabundance of caution is not a good thing.

[James S. Rustad]

Pastor Fienen:
My wife and I got our vaccinations and boosters and still got Covid. I don't regret the shots. Perhaps they delayed our getting Covid, perhaps they lessened the severity, who can tell.

Me:
The statistics can tell. Those who are vaccinated and boosted are less likely to be hospitalized, less likely to need a ventilator, and less likely to die. Of course, if one does die, it might not actually be Covid that delivers the death blow. So let’s not sweat about any of the warnings concerning Covid or anything related to it.
And yes, I read the whole article.

And the foolery continues.

If the statistics are inflated (which appears to be true), incorrect public policy decisions can be made based on those statistics.  That's why it matters - the statistics cannot tell.

What was incorrect about the public policy decisions? Is an overabundance of caution "incorrect"?

When the overabundance of caution leads to unnecessary school shutdowns that damaged our children, yes.  Remember that it was known early on that children were only weakly affected by COVID-19.

When the overabundance of caution leads to unnecessary business shutdowns that damaged our economy, yes.  Remember how critical the experts were of Florida compared to New York?  We now know that Florida's results (3,919 deaths per million population) are about the same as New York's (3,902 deaths per million population).  Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Early on the experts can be excused for overreacting, but what about later in the pandemic when they should have known better?

[Brian Stoffregen]

What was incorrect about the public policy decisions? Is an overabundance of caution "incorrect"?

Yes. Per the definition of “over-“

So, if a fund drive goes over the goal amount, it's "incorrect"? Or, is it a welcomed bonus? A plus?

If in order to save 100 people from death by Covid you cause  more than 100 deaths of despair, then an overabundance of caution is not a good thing.

I'm pretty sure that the number of people that were saved from death by our overabundance of caution was much higher than the deaths of despair.

[Matt Hummel]

What was incorrect about the public policy decisions? Is an overabundance of caution "incorrect"?

Yes. Per the definition of “over-“

So, if a fund drive goes over the goal amount, it's "incorrect"? Or, is it a welcomed bonus? A plus?

If in order to save 100 people from death by Covid you cause  more than 100 deaths of despair, then an overabundance of caution is not a good thing.

I'm pretty sure that the number of people that were saved from death by our overabundance of caution was much higher than the deaths of despair.

 

Prove it. We know about the massive uptick in deaths of despair. We know about the soaring homicide rates in places like Philadelphia.

Any actual classroom teacher knows the irreparable damage done to this generation of students.

Liberal/Progressive "abundance of caution" has delt this nation a serious blow.

[Dan Fienen]

The Covid pandemic is winding down from a pandemic to another of the myriad endemic diseases that we must continually deal with and has periodic outbreaks, like the flu. I think it likely that we will have our annual Covid shot like we have our annual flu shot, perhaps they will be bundled together. Mistakes were made in dealing with Covid, perhaps the way statistics were kept and reported was one of them. The death toll was significant but compared to other pandemics from the Black Death that killed about half the population of Europe to the AIDS pandemic that killed almost 5 times as many people as Covid has and 0.7% of the population compared to 0.08% of the population with Covid, we've seen worse. Even now there are suggestions that Covid remains a serious enough threat to warrant new indoor mask mandates and travel restrictions, although not a serious threat on the Southern border. Long term health and societal effects linger.




As we look back and count the costs not only in deaths, but to our economy, social structures, lives disrupted and damage, do we simply say that what happened, happened and there is no need to evaluate what worked, what didn't, and what may have made things worse? Was all the collateral damage, in businesses ruined, lives disrupted, education damaged, mental health impacted, worth it? Or is that even a question worth asking? Playing the blame game, especially the political blame game, is an obvious but ultimately self-defeating exercise. But can we learn anything to apply to the next time? There will be a next time, there always is. Or is what we have learned is that we need to simply tell hoi polloi what they need to hear in order to act in the way we decide they need to and make sure that they hear nothing else, even the truth?

[Jim Butler]

What was incorrect about the public policy decisions? Is an overabundance of caution "incorrect"?

Yes. Per the definition of “over-“

So, if a fund drive goes over the goal amount, it's "incorrect"? Or, is it a welcomed bonus? A plus?

If in order to save 100 people from death by Covid you cause  more than 100 deaths of despair, then an overabundance of caution is not a good thing.

I'm pretty sure that the number of people that were saved from death by our overabundance of caution was much higher than the deaths of despair.

To quote Charles Austin: "No proof of any of this. Pure speculation, based on bias."

[Fletch1]

With my 20-20 hindsight goggles on it seems we should have quarantined the sick instead of the healthy - as in all previous “pandemics” for hundreds of years. YMMV

[Brian Stoffregen]

Prove it. We know about the massive uptick in deaths of despair. We know about the soaring homicide rates in places like Philadelphia.

Our dishwasher just quit working. Should we blame that on COVID, too? I think not. The homicide rate in Philadelphia in 1990 was higher than in 2020.

Any actual classroom teacher knows the irreparable damage done to this generation of students.

Prove it. I don't believe that the lack of classroom learning created an irreparable situation.
Also, SAT scores started going down before the pandemic. The lack of knowledge in students was decreasing.

Perhaps I'm different, but I didn't need classrooms to learn. I received 10 hours of college credits through independent studies with no classroom time. Another class, I skipped the class lectures, read the books, came and took the tests. I did my last year of seminary with all independent studies.

If students can't make up with they lost during the pandemic, I wouldn't blame the shut-down during the pandemic, but the lack of quality education that they are receiving afterwards.

Liberal/Progressive "abundance of caution" has dealt this nation a serious blow.

Not nearly as much as the conservative party-spirit division that still plagues our country. I've heard it argued that it goes back to Newt Gingrich who insisted that Republicans should not be friends with Democrats. The Republican loser in our governor's race still insists that it was rigged against her. She is still trying to change the election through the courts. The Democrat won by a clear majority. There were three other races in Arizona that were so close that there was an automatic recount. Democrats won 2 and a Republican won 1. I'd think that if a group had the power to rig an election, their party would have won all of the races.

BTW my brothers and their wives have had COVID, my wife tested positive, but had no symptoms. I've never tested positive. I took the precautions. I've had all the shots. (My lack of COVID seemed to surprise a nurse as she was preparing me for a procedure that required a negative COVID and flu test before they would proceed.) Oh, and masks are required at the hospital; even when I go in for blood tests. I would think that the best medical experts would know what they are doing.

[Dan Fienen]

So, if students aren't as proficient as you at independent study, it's their fault their education suffered during Covid lockdowns, and they deserve no consideration? Students in poorer families with only a shared computer and slow internet connectivity, It’s their fault they fell behind, they simply should have worked around the problems?


Brian, you excelled at independent study, shouldn't everybody if they would just apply themselves. Perhaps if they fell behind during the Cov,Covid lockdowns they were just lazy?

[Charles Austin]

Don’t go to the sermonic extremes, Pastor Fienen. The point Brian and I are trying to make is that “learning” comes in different ways and that our children, if they are adversely affected by pandemic situations, are just facing the rigors of Life. Our cozy, untroubled world got shaken up. Deal with it.

[James S. Rustad]

Brian and Charles -- just how bad would the effects on children need to be to outweigh the benefits of the school lockdowns?

Sixty-four percent of public schools reported that the pandemic played a major role to students being behind grade level to start the school year.
More than half of public schools utilized high-dosage tutoring to support pandemic-related learning recovery.
...
Seventy percent of public schools reported that the percentage of students who have sought mental health services increased since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Twenty-nine percent of public schools reported that the percentage of staff who have sought mental health services increased since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Fifty-six percent of public schools reported they moderately or strongly agree that their school is able to effectively provide mental health services to all students in need.
...
More than 8 in 10 public schools have seen stunted behavioral and socioemotional development in their students because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Minor offenses, such as tardiness and classroom disruptions, are the most frequently cited illicit behaviors that have increased in part due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Who are these people with these horrible statistics?

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting and analyzing data related to education in the U.S. and other nations. NCES is located within the U.S. Department of Education and the Institute of Education Sciences. NCES fulfills a Congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze, and report complete statistics on the condition of American education; conduct and publish reports; and review and report on education activities internationally.

[Charles Austin]

I believe we did not know much about mental health among children prior to the pandemic. So we don’t know what the situation really was with them before the pandemic hit. The pandemic may have helped us direct more attention to mental health among the children.
   It was reported: “Minor offenses, such as tardiness and classroom disruptions, are the most frequently cited illicit behaviors that have increased in part due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”
  OMG! Call out the National Guard! School children using an unusual situation in order to cause classroom difficulties? Whoever heard of such a thing? (Only every teacher, every substitute teacher, or anybody who has spent any time in a classroom.) Anyone concerned about the anxiety that might be caused by the semi pandemic of school shootings, and school-age children being killed by gang violence due to the proliferation of guns on their streets?

[Dan Fienen]

One of the great tragedies of this Coronavirus pandemic is how politicized our response has been from the very beginning. I blame this on both Republicans and Democrats. Early on, Democrats accused Trump of overreacting to what was a minor health crisis in China, nothing worse than more severe flu strain. When it became apparent that it was much worse than a bad flu, suddenly Trump was under reacting and proposing absurd remedies such as dubious medicines and an absurd crash vaccine development program. Republicans were no better. Many resisted even reasonable precautions as Democratic plots to control people's lives. Conspiracy theories about vaccines abounded. Rather than coming together to fight a natural disaster (even questions of how natural the origins of this pandemic were becoming less about facts and more a political football) it became one more weapon employed for political advantage.


Statistical analysis is an important epidemiological tool for responding to public health crises. But in this crisis battling statistics became just more ammunition for political warfare. Statistics as to the severity of the disease, mortality and hospitalization rates justify more intrusive intervention. Meanwhile, for those who have hitched their political wagon to interventionist policies, school, business, cultural event shutdowns, masks, vaccine mandates and the like, there are advantages to emphasize severity of the disease and minimize the deleterious effects of their measures. So adverse effects on children of school lockdowns and social isolation, effects on the economy are downplayed or denied. After all, even if those draconian edicts weren't really necessary, an abundance of caution made it worth it, and it wasn't all that bad anyway.


It is now being suggested that the statistics of the disease were off. Rather than looking back and seeing how our response could have been improved, it becomes just another battlefront. That is sad. And counterproductive.