Coronavirus news

[Charles Austin]

Peter:
People who are better at looking at maps than you and I don’t agree with you.

From the NYT morning repor by David Leonhardt
   Tucker Carlson could do it. So could Laura Ingraham, Mark Levin or Donald Trump himself.
   One of these conservative figures could go on the air and explain that the Omicron variant has placed much of their audience in grave danger. They could remind people that they have been skeptical of vaccines at times — but that Omicron is different. It is so contagious that it may quickly sweep the country.
   As they issued this warning, they could still take their usual swipes at the political left, mocking panicky liberals for wearing masks outdoors and forcing children to sit apart in cold schoolyards. Conservatives don’t need to do any of that; they just need to take a Covid-19 vaccine — the “Trump vaccine” that could save their life.
  I don’t have any illusions about how likely this scenario is, but I do think that unvaccinated Americans — who are disproportionately Republican — are now in even more danger than a few weeks ago. Omicron seems to be qualitatively more contagious than any earlier variant.
   In the U.S., partisanship is the biggest factor determining vaccination rates. If Democratic voters made up their own country, it would be one of the world’s most vaccinated, with more than 91 percent of adults having received at least one shot. Only about 60 percent of Republican adults have done so.
   This vaccination gap has created a huge gap in death rates, one that has grown sharply during the second half of the year.
   The article includes a chart showing a higher level of death in the counties that voted for the ex president. Then the story notes
   One telling detail is that Covid deaths in both swing counties and heavily Biden counties have not risen over the past two months, even as nationwide case numbers have surged. In heavily vaccinated communities, rising caseloads don’t automatically lead to rising death tolls.

Carry on.

[peter_speckhard]

Peter:
People who are better at looking at maps than you are I don’t agree with you.

From the NYT morning repor by David Leonhardt
   Tucker Carlson could do it. So could Laura Ingraham, Mark Levin or Donald Trump himself.
   One of these conservative figures could go on the air and explain that the Omicron variant has placed much of their audience in grave danger. They could remind people that they have been skeptical of vaccines at times — but that Omicron is different. It is so contagious that it may quickly sweep the country.
   As they issued this warning, they could still take their usual swipes at the political left, mocking panicky liberals for wearing masks outdoors and forcing children to sit apart in cold schoolyards. Conservatives don’t need to do any of that; they just need to take a Covid-19 vaccine — the “Trump vaccine” that could save their life.
  I don’t have any illusions about how likely this scenario is, but I do think that unvaccinated Americans — who are disproportionately Republican — are now in even more danger than a few weeks ago. Omicron seems to be qualitatively more contagious than any earlier variant.
   In the U.S., partisanship is the biggest factor determining vaccination rates. If Democratic voters made up their own country, it would be one of the world’s most vaccinated, with more than 91 percent of adults having received at least one shot. Only about 60 percent of Republican adults have done so.
   This vaccination gap has created a huge gap in death rates, one that has grown sharply during the second half of the year.
   The article includes a chart showing a higher level of death in the counties that voted for the ex president. Then the story notes
   One telling detail is that Covid deaths in both swing counties and heavily Biden counties have not risen over the past two months, even as nationwide case numbers have surged. In heavily vaccinated communities, rising caseloads don’t automatically lead to rising death tolls.

Carry on.

Will do. There is no line between Indiana and Illinois, which there would be if differing governmental policies were making a difference. As for whether vaccines tend to prevent more serious cases, I have never argued otherwise.

[J. Thomas Shelley]

If you look at a map of where the cases are, it makes no sense to say that red states are getting hit harder. The Northeast and Upper Midwest are getting hit, largely because of winter, and the South and West are not getting hit nearly as much

It is mostly seasonal. 

In the summer folks in the deep south stayed indoors with air conditioning and the alleged cases skyrocket while the northeast declined.

In the winter southerners spend less time indoors while the USNE bunkers down.

Seems like one of the best mitigation measures--hardly ever mentioned and thus far not mandated--would be improved HVAC systems with UV filtration and a mix of outside/recirculated air. 

Anyone else remember "Legionaire's Disease" which was largely traced to a contaminated HVAC system in a Philadelphia hotel?

[Dan Fienen]

In all our debates about proper responses to the corona virus, a distinction needs to be made between the use of vaccines and masking.


There seems no reasonable doubt that the vaccines are reasonably safe and effective. One of the vaccines, the Johnson vaccine, it seems now has a fairly rare but serious side effect, but the others seem reasonably safe. The prudent choice in the majority of people's estimation is to be vaccinated.


The use of high-quality surgical masks also seems effective. The much more common cloth or flimsy blue paper masks, especially if not properly worn, less so. Here, despite the almost religious fervor with which they are pushed on everyone, the benefits may not always be worth the negatives of mask mandates, especially for children. The benefit of making children at school eat outside, in the cold, and socially distanced seems much more dubious.


Often, however, masking and vaccination seem to be lumped together. Those who question masking get lumped in with vaccine conspiracy nuts. That does not make for productive discussion.

[Donald_Kirchner]

Again. Forget the people.

Then, "" Let's talk about the people!"

...Tucker Carlson could do it. So could Laura Ingraham, Mark Levin or Donald Trump himself.

One of these conservative figures could go on the air and explain that the Omicron variant has placed much of their audience in grave danger. They could remind people that they have been skeptical of vaccines at times — but that Omicron is different. It is so contagious that it may quickly sweep the country.
   
As they issued this warning, they could still take their usual swipes at the political left, mocking panicky liberals...

 

[Charles Austin]

Peter, I think those statistics were based on counties that voted for the ex-president not whole states, therefore the zeroing in on who is sick from what political region is a little more focused.

[peter_speckhard]

Peter, I think those statistics were based on counties that voted for the ex-president not whole states, therefore the zeroing in on who is sick from what political region is a little more focused.

I know. But the public policies of the two states in question differ widely. So if those policies and guidelines made a difference, then demographically similar counties on either side of the line would look different. But they don’t. The lock-down, mask mandate places do not fare better all other demographics being more or less equal. If they did, Michigan and Illinois counties would look different than their nearby Indiana counties.

The fact is, just looking at percent of the vote is a bogus model. Too many other factors weigh in, such as Trump voters being older, more rural and further from medical care, less educated, whiter, (and we know the highly educated and ethnic minorities are under vaxxed communities, but for some reason you don’t post NYT charts condemning them), and so forth. So the NYT article is simply an attempt to cram data into a predetermined narrative.

[Charles Austin]

We were talking vaccinations, not masking

[peter_speckhard]

We were talking vaccinations, not masking

Either way, the NYT article you quoted is a narrative in search of a willing audience.

[James S. Rustad]

This is where I do not bring up the idea of God culling the herd.

Thanks for bringing that up.

[James S. Rustad]

We were talking vaccinations, not masking

Yep.  Ignore the confounding variables and you have proof for your theory.  Pay attention to them and you don't prove it.

Go read "How to Lie with Statistics" for even more ways to misuse statistics.

[peter_speckhard]

Got my booster this morning. Walk in, no line. Wanted to get it after yesterday but in plenty of time to recoup from any side effects before Christmas.

[peter_speckhard]

From an article at the CNN website. https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/20/politics/donald-trump-booster-shot-boos/index.html

According to video tweeted by O'Reilly's "No Spin News," the former Fox News host says, "Both the President and I are vaxxed" and then asks Trump, "Did you get the booster?"
"Yes," Trump says to a smattering of boos in the audience. "Don't, don't, don't, don't, don't," Trump says in the video, seemingly trying to quiet the boos. "That's all right, it's a very tiny group over there."

[JEdwards]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/12/20/cleveland-hospitals-newspaper-ad-covid-cases/

At the hospital where I work, over 90% of the patients in the ICU with COVID are unvaccinated.  There is a cascading effect, as people who should be in the ICU can't get there for lack of beds.  I welcome any encouragement for vaccination, from any source.

Peace,
Jon

[Charles Austin]

But JEdwards, don't you know? The vaccines might be dangerous. They could magnetize your body. You can still get the infection even if vaccinated, so why take the risk? Dr. Fauci lies. Some doctors say you should not get vaccinated, so why not believe them? It's a plot by Bill Gates to put chips in our bodies. You don't have to get vaccinated if you have a "religious" objection. Vaccine mandates are unconstitutional. Three big movie stars were on Fox saying the vaccines were dangerous.
And - I personally heard this in a line at the supermarket - the stories about crowded hospitals are fake news.
Mercy!