Author Topic: Coronavirus news  (Read 397924 times)

Charles Austin

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #3780 on: May 27, 2021, 05:14:31 PM »
Bad anology, Peter. Driving a car is risky. The facts say that if one drinks and drives, the risk of an accident soars. One “wins” by not doing that. 
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jebutler

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #3781 on: May 27, 2021, 05:23:27 PM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-ends-ban-on-posts-asserting-covid-19-was-man-made-11622094890

This is one of many examples. Politifact and other “fact-checkers” are doing likewise. The problem it reveals is that it proves they never fact checked it in the first place. If the statement was knowably false when they banned it it could not be potentially true now. It wasn’t knowably false. It was a controversial theory. It would be one thing if they had banned such theorizing as needlessly inflammatory. But they didn’t. They called it false as though they knew what was true. They didn’t. News media fact checkers are propaganda tools.


"Facts" are often an odds game. Which is more likely? Our son used to program slot machines. He was often asked, "How can I win?" His answer, "Don't play." The odds are set by state gaming commissions, and the house will always win more money than the players. This doesn't mean that occasionally a player will win more money than they lost; but that's the exception.

Your illustration makes no sense. "Facts" are not an odds game. What you are proposing is the listing of various hypotheses and then weighing them on which is more or less likely. But that hypothesis still needs to be tested and a more unlikely one could actually be the actual case.

You gave one fact: slot machines are programmed for the house to win the majority of the time. The only safe bet is not to play. (That's sound advice based on the fact.)

The odds that a new virus was transmitted from animals to humans is greater than the idea that it was created in a lab and somehow leaked out. It doesn't mean that it couldn't happen; but that's the exception.

Well, if you put it that way, yes.

But in this case we have not one, but two, labs in Wuhan that were both studying bat viruses. In 2018, two US diplomats actually wrote a memo to the State Dept with their concerns about the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Please remember that the original SARS virus was the result of an accidental leak from the Chinese Institute of Virology in Beijing.

Oh yeah, the bats from which this virus would have sprung are over a thousand miles away from Wuhan and never come anywhere close. There is no "chain" of illness connecting the bats to Wuhan. This is what gave rise to the pangolin hypothesis.

Which sounds more likely: transmission from animals a thousand miles away to humans or an accidental lab leak by a virology lab in Wuhan that is studying bat viruses?
The truth we preach is not an abstract thing. The truth is a Person. The goodness we preach is not an ideal quality. The goodness is Someone who is good. The love we preach is God himself in Christ. --H. Grady Davis

peter_speckhard

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #3782 on: May 27, 2021, 05:59:58 PM »
Bad anology, Peter. Driving a car is risky. The facts say that if one drinks and drives, the risk of an accident soars. One “wins” by not doing that.
Nobody asked how one “wins.” They asked how one wins. The answer is that they can only win by luck. If they play, they will likely lose. That doesn’t in any way suggest that if they don’t play they will win or even “win.”

Marshall Hahn

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #3783 on: May 27, 2021, 06:08:13 PM »
So "Trump Derangement Syndrome" is not only harmful to the psyche of the persons and institutions infected by it, it can also result in danger to the health and security of countless others.  Because of the insistence that anything Trump says must be wrong and because anyone who in the slightest way agrees with something he says must be ridiculed and demonized by our betters in the media, we have lost an entire year in examining the most logical source of the Covid virus - which could, in fact, have helped in determining how to treat it.  Wonderful.

Marshall Hahn

Brian Stoffregen

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #3784 on: May 27, 2021, 06:21:17 PM »
Also, by your son’s logic I won the U.S. Open by not playing in it.


Well, you certainly didn't spend the money for the entrance fee, travel expenses, the costs for hotel and restaurants, and other expenses. You probably came out ahead by not playing.
"The church … had made us like ill-taught piano students; we play our songs, but we never really hear them, because our main concern is not to make music, but but to avoid some flub that will get us in dutch." [Robert Capon, _Between Noon and Three_, p. 148]

Brian Stoffregen

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #3785 on: May 27, 2021, 06:38:46 PM »
Your illustration makes no sense. "Facts" are not an odds game. What you are proposing is the listing of various hypotheses and then weighing them on which is more or less likely. But that hypothesis still needs to be tested and a more unlikely one could actually be the actual case.


 Scientific proofs are an odds game. Built into scientific experiments (which I had to do for my psych degree,) are the odds that the same result will occur should I repeat the experiment 100 times. Typically, the odds are set at 95% or 99%. Should it make those odds, we consider it true or factual.

Quote
You gave one fact: slot machines are programmed for the house to win the majority of the time. The only safe bet is not to play. (That's sound advice based on the fact.)


There's a percentage of times a machine (or a whole bank of machines) have to pay out over the lifetime of the machine (or bank of machines). What a particular machine will do today is unknown, but the odds are against the player.


Quote
But in this case we have not one, but two, labs in Wuhan that were both studying bat viruses. In 2018, two US diplomats actually wrote a memo to the State Dept with their concerns about the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Please remember that the original SARS virus was the result of an accidental leak from the Chinese Institute of Virology in Beijing.

Oh yeah, the bats from which this virus would have sprung are over a thousand miles away from Wuhan and never come anywhere close. There is no "chain" of illness connecting the bats to Wuhan. This is what gave rise to the pangolin hypothesis.


Yes, the distance led to the hypothesis that the bats infected some other animal that brought the virus to Wuhan.

There is also the issue of the genome of the virus is not related to anything seen before. It isn't an adaptation or evolution from a previously known coronavirus.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2021, 06:42:37 PM by Brian Stoffregen »
"The church … had made us like ill-taught piano students; we play our songs, but we never really hear them, because our main concern is not to make music, but but to avoid some flub that will get us in dutch." [Robert Capon, _Between Noon and Three_, p. 148]

peter_speckhard

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #3786 on: May 27, 2021, 07:00:04 PM »
Also, by your son’s logic I won the U.S. Open by not playing in it.


Well, you certainly didn't spend the money for the entrance fee, travel expenses, the costs for hotel and restaurants, and other expenses. You probably came out ahead by not playing.
Again, that isn't at all the same thing as winning. 

Dan Fienen

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #3787 on: May 27, 2021, 07:05:22 PM »
The problem was not that one origin theory was more likely than the other or that initial data seemed to make one theory unlikely. It's that Facebook, among others, decided early on that the lab leak origin theory was not just unlikely but flat out wrong, dangerously fake news and should not be considered or discussed. Anyone who brought it up in a post would be censored. Talk about a rush to judgment!
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Brian Stoffregen

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #3788 on: May 27, 2021, 07:24:30 PM »
Also, by your son’s logic I won the U.S. Open by not playing in it.


Well, you certainly didn't spend the money for the entrance fee, travel expenses, the costs for hotel and restaurants, and other expenses. You probably came out ahead by not playing.
Again, that isn't at all the same thing as winning.


And I'll let you think that you've won this argument.
"The church … had made us like ill-taught piano students; we play our songs, but we never really hear them, because our main concern is not to make music, but but to avoid some flub that will get us in dutch." [Robert Capon, _Between Noon and Three_, p. 148]

John_Hannah

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #3789 on: May 27, 2021, 07:50:54 PM »
I don't think I saw any statement from anyone claiming definitive knowledge of the origin of this coronavirus. All acknowledged lack of evidence one way or other. Most, but not all, thought that bats (or some animal) was likely the source. Likely is not definite.

Peace, JOHN
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jebutler

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #3790 on: May 27, 2021, 07:54:46 PM »
Your illustration makes no sense. "Facts" are not an odds game. What you are proposing is the listing of various hypotheses and then weighing them on which is more or less likely. But that hypothesis still needs to be tested and a more unlikely one could actually be the actual case.


 Scientific proofs are an odds game. Built into scientific experiments (which I had to do for my psych degree,) are the odds that the same result will occur should I repeat the experiment 100 times. Typically, the odds are set at 95% or 99%. Should it make those odds, we consider it true or factual.

Which is not what you argued earlier. There you said it was a matter of what was "likely." Odds of 95-99% are not merely "likely." Let just say that any who was told that a slot machine paid out 99% of the time would probably go for it.


But in this case we have not one, but two, labs in Wuhan that were both studying bat viruses. In 2018, two US diplomats actually wrote a memo to the State Dept with their concerns about the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Please remember that the original SARS virus was the result of an accidental leak from the Chinese Institute of Virology in Beijing.

Oh yeah, the bats from which this virus would have sprung are over a thousand miles away from Wuhan and never come anywhere close. There is no "chain" of illness connecting the bats to Wuhan. This is what gave rise to the pangolin hypothesis.


Yes, the distance led to the hypothesis that the bats infected some other animal that brought the virus to Wuhan.

There is also the issue of the genome of the virus is not related to anything seen before. It isn't an adaptation or evolution from a previously known coronavirus.

Where do you do your research? In April 2012 a group of miners cleaned out bat guano from an abandoned copper mine in Yunnan Province, China. All six became ill; three died. Samples of this virus were sent to the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

In February 2020, a group of researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology studied SARS-CoV-2 and found it was "highly similar throughout the genome to RaTG13” — the virus found in the mineshaft — “with an overall genome sequence identity of 96.2 percent.” https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7

Read the article. You might want to rethink your conclusion, "he genome of the virus is not related to anything seen before. It isn't an adaptation or evolution from a previously known coronavirus."
The truth we preach is not an abstract thing. The truth is a Person. The goodness we preach is not an ideal quality. The goodness is Someone who is good. The love we preach is God himself in Christ. --H. Grady Davis

jebutler

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #3791 on: May 27, 2021, 08:01:44 PM »
I don't think I saw any statement from anyone claiming definitive knowledge of the origin of this coronavirus. All acknowledged lack of evidence one way or other. Most, but not all, thought that bats (or some animal) was likely the source. Likely is not definite.

Peace, JOHN

That's not the issue. The problem is that various media groups stated that the lab-leak hypothesis was conspiracy theory nonsense which had been debunked. PolitFact went so far as to label it "Pants on Fire" their highest rating for "lying."

Now the lab-leak hypothesis is being reassessed and being considered more and more likely. Matt Yglesias does a good job of explaining the issue on his Substack. https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-medias-lab-leak-fiasco
The truth we preach is not an abstract thing. The truth is a Person. The goodness we preach is not an ideal quality. The goodness is Someone who is good. The love we preach is God himself in Christ. --H. Grady Davis

Brian Stoffregen

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #3792 on: May 27, 2021, 08:08:39 PM »
Your illustration makes no sense. "Facts" are not an odds game. What you are proposing is the listing of various hypotheses and then weighing them on which is more or less likely. But that hypothesis still needs to be tested and a more unlikely one could actually be the actual case.


 Scientific proofs are an odds game. Built into scientific experiments (which I had to do for my psych degree,) are the odds that the same result will occur should I repeat the experiment 100 times. Typically, the odds are set at 95% or 99%. Should it make those odds, we consider it true or factual.

Which is not what you argued earlier. There you said it was a matter of what was "likely." Odds of 95-99% are not merely "likely." Let just say that any who was told that a slot machine paid out 99% of the time would probably go for it.


"Likely" is used when one doesn't have the scientific data to support clear odds.

Quote

But in this case we have not one, but two, labs in Wuhan that were both studying bat viruses. In 2018, two US diplomats actually wrote a memo to the State Dept with their concerns about the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Please remember that the original SARS virus was the result of an accidental leak from the Chinese Institute of Virology in Beijing.

Oh yeah, the bats from which this virus would have sprung are over a thousand miles away from Wuhan and never come anywhere close. There is no "chain" of illness connecting the bats to Wuhan. This is what gave rise to the pangolin hypothesis.


Yes, the distance led to the hypothesis that the bats infected some other animal that brought the virus to Wuhan.

There is also the issue of the genome of the virus is not related to anything seen before. It isn't an adaptation or evolution from a previously known coronavirus.

Where do you do your research? In April 2012 a group of miners cleaned out bat guano from an abandoned copper mine in Yunnan Province, China. All six became ill; three died. Samples of this virus were sent to the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

In February 2020, a group of researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology studied SARS-CoV-2 and found it was "highly similar throughout the genome to RaTG13” — the virus found in the mineshaft — “with an overall genome sequence identity of 96.2 percent.” https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7

Read the article. You might want to rethink your conclusion, "he genome of the virus is not related to anything seen before. It isn't an adaptation or evolution from a previously known coronavirus."


As I recall what I read, the similarities were as close as humans and chimpanzees. Thus, like evolution theory, they point to a common ancestor; but one is not derived from the other.
"The church … had made us like ill-taught piano students; we play our songs, but we never really hear them, because our main concern is not to make music, but but to avoid some flub that will get us in dutch." [Robert Capon, _Between Noon and Three_, p. 148]

John_Hannah

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #3793 on: May 28, 2021, 06:22:08 AM »
I don't think I saw any statement from anyone claiming definitive knowledge of the origin of this coronavirus. All acknowledged lack of evidence one way or other. Most, but not all, thought that bats (or some animal) was likely the source. Likely is not definite.

Peace, JOHN

That's not the issue. The problem is that various media groups stated that the lab-leak hypothesis was conspiracy theory nonsense which had been debunked. PolitFact went so far as to label it "Pants on Fire" their highest rating for "lying."

Now the lab-leak hypothesis is being reassessed and being considered more and more likely. Matt Yglesias does a good job of explaining the issue on his Substack. https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-medias-lab-leak-fiasco

I guess that I don't read, "various media groups." Can't say that I miss the experience.   ;D

Peace, JOHN
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Charles Austin

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #3794 on: May 28, 2021, 08:19:43 AM »
Maybe talk about the dust-up over the origin of the virus would be healthier if we set aside various "conspiracy theories" about why "media" or "various media groups" or the bridge club in Pocatello or right/left-wing blogs or anyone - fool or fine person - who ever got elected to public office says and considered this.
1. A year ago we didn't know for sure (or even "for maybe") whence came the virus.
2. We don't know its origins now.
3. We had some information on hand a year ago, causing some to theorize.
4. We have more information on hand now, kapoofing some theories.
5. And most importantly, we will learn more as time goes by.
So can we be insistent that there be continued research into where the little darling came from - bats, humans, a lab, a mystery-tech firm - and wait until the people who really know have something solid to report?
Meanwhile, get the shots. Be careful. Get outdoors. Pet a cat. Don't go to Nascar races.
Retired ELCA pastor. Iowa born. Back home from Sioux City after three days and a pleasant reunion of the East High School class of - can you believe it! - 1959.