Coronavirus news

[JDB]

Charles Austin wrote:
We just cannot avoid the shocking idiocies.
The governor of Michigan announced plans to deal with the soaring infection rates.
They include some shutdowns of restaurants, casinos and theaters.

I respond:
Rev. Austin, what isn’t noted is that the fatality rates are plummeting. Here in Washington state the fatality from this virus was over 4. Now, as the virus has moved into the general, healthier population, the fatality rate is 1.89, which means that it has been even lower these past few months.

Yes, we should protect the most vulnerable, and we should encourage safe practices. Moreover, in our corporate gatherings we should take into account that many parishioners are in vulnerable categories. However, we should also recognize that for the vast majority of people this virus will come and go without causing death or long- term, debilitating consequences and let people engage in their activities.

Peterm wrote:
An additional part of the challenge Jeff, at least in our area, has nothing to do with the fatality rate which is indeed sinking Thanks be to God, but the infection rate and rise in hospitalizations.  Whether or not death results, our hospitals , ALL of them within 100 mile, are filling at an alarming rate with COVID patients.  So, regardless of the death rate, the toll on our care systems here in rural Iowa and the people who staff them, is staggering.  This also needs to be considered when talking about things like mask mandates and calls to limit gatherings etc.
[/quote]

James Rustad wrote:
Wisconsin DHS reports the State Fair Park Alternate Care Facility patient population is 17 as of 11:00 am today.  The facility has currently has 530 patient spaces and could expand to 754 patient spaces.  The first patient was admitted in October.  Note that this is an overflow facility, so it is clear that some Wisconsin hospitals are full enough to transfer patients to it.  It's not clear how many hospitals are at or near capacity as the number of COVID cases varies by locality.
https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/alternate-care-facility.htm

I respond:
I appreciate the concern of hospitals reaching capacity and I appreciate the work that hospital personnel are doing. That said, what is capacity? Hospitals designate various areas or wings. There are likely only a certain number of beds available. So what is capacity at the hospitals which are transferring- 8, 16, 24... 200. I don’t want to minimize this, but it makes a difference in how one views those 530 patient spaces that are available.

The county in which I live has had 4251 cases since the outbreak. 3347 have recovered and 24 have died. There are currently 880 active cases. Of these, 18 are currently hospitalized, approximately 2% of active cases. Given the fact that we know there are certain segments of our society which are far and away more at risk of severe developments, I still think is preferable to shelter those most at risk while avoiding the draconian measures that some have imposed. 

Btw, while many here complain about masks, more than 90% of us use them in indoor public places such as stores, offices, churches, etc.

Jeff

[MaddogLutheran]

I've been stewing on this, decided to post it...

Working from home, I typically have the TV on to CNBC (muted).  Yesterday afternoon, they carried the Joe Biden/Kamala Harris press conference.  I didn't unmute the TV, but the chyron text at one point said "150K might die if transition delayed" (words to that effect).

That's just preposterous, and exactly the problem with our political atmosphere and news reporting.  Where does that number come from?  I'm so tired of being lectured by people about "science" and yet these kind of advantageous political talking points get repeated uncritically.  I'm left wondering how anyone is alive to be killed by the virus, after Republican/Trump net neutrality repeal and tax cuts killed millions.

If anyone continues to wonder why people don't care about Trump's brazen lying...this is it.  I think his lies and Biden's lies are equally offensive.  Yet each tribe will defend its own.

Back on March 31, Drs. Fauci and Birx said that deaths could read 100,000 to 240,000 even with following guidelines, and much higher if people don't. What seemed like a huge number back then has proven to be true as we have reached 250,000 deaths from COVID-19.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/us/politics/coronavirus-death-toll-united-states.html


What evidence do you have that Biden is lying by stating that 150,000 might die? Playing a little with math: With about 60 days until January 20, 2021; if we averaged 2500 deaths/day until then, we have 150,000 deaths. There were days back in April when the death rate was more than 2500 deaths/day. Granted, the most deaths in a day we've had in November is about 1900, higher than any day since May 7; but the rate is going up. If there is a repeat of what happened in April, 150,000 deaths is possible. Should it happen, blaming them all on Trump's delay of the transition is far-fetched.

[snip]

Why do I have to prove that Biden is wrong, when he made an unsubstantiated claim?  You haven't demonstrated how the Fauci/Birx death estimate could have anything to do with the delayed transition.  This is like the South Park underwear names gnomes (corrected), where phase 2 is a mystery, leading to "profit" in phase 3.  You say it's far fetched, yet refuse to actually agree with me.

This is has been my strong objection to (lack of) news reporting about Biden's COVID "plan".  What has been made public doesn't specify anything different that what the Trump administration is doing or planning to do.  Having the "right" people in charge does not magically make things better.  All this mask mandate is nonsense.  The issue is not whether masks are mandated.  It's whether enough of the population follows it.  Threatening to arrest people won't accomplish that.  Besides, Biden has acknowledged (in the very press conference I referenced) that he has no authority to impose a national mask mandate anyway.  Top down commands from Washington are counterproductive for many reasons, but especially because public health is a primary, historical function of the states.  It is not the federal government that acts when there is a measles outbreak.  COVID is no different.  If we had a news media that wasn't in the tank for the guy, maybe the vacuousness here would be highlighted.

I continue to dissent from the idea that there is anything significant the federal government can do to "fix" things, as the trends in the rest of the world (in places other than islands or small populations with control of the borders) demonstrate.

[Brian Stoffregen]

I've been stewing on this, decided to post it...

Working from home, I typically have the TV on to CNBC (muted).  Yesterday afternoon, they carried the Joe Biden/Kamala Harris press conference.  I didn't unmute the TV, but the chyron text at one point said "150K might die if transition delayed" (words to that effect).

That's just preposterous, and exactly the problem with our political atmosphere and news reporting.  Where does that number come from?  I'm so tired of being lectured by people about "science" and yet these kind of advantageous political talking points get repeated uncritically.  I'm left wondering how anyone is alive to be killed by the virus, after Republican/Trump net neutrality repeal and tax cuts killed millions.

If anyone continues to wonder why people don't care about Trump's brazen lying...this is it.  I think his lies and Biden's lies are equally offensive.  Yet each tribe will defend its own.

Back on March 31, Drs. Fauci and Birx said that deaths could read 100,000 to 240,000 even with following guidelines, and much higher if people don't. What seemed like a huge number back then has proven to be true as we have reached 250,000 deaths from COVID-19.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/us/politics/coronavirus-death-toll-united-states.html


What evidence do you have that Biden is lying by stating that 150,000 might die? Playing a little with math: With about 60 days until January 20, 2021; if we averaged 2500 deaths/day until then, we have 150,000 deaths. There were days back in April when the death rate was more than 2500 deaths/day. Granted, the most deaths in a day we've had in November is about 1900, higher than any day since May 7; but the rate is going up. If there is a repeat of what happened in April, 150,000 deaths is possible. Should it happen, blaming them all on Trump's delay of the transition is far-fetched.

[snip]

Why do I have to prove that Biden is wrong, when he made an unsubstantiated claim?  You haven't demonstrated how the Fauci/Birx death estimate could have anything to do with the delayed transition.  This is like the South Park underwear names, where phase 2 is a mystery, leading to "profit" in phase 3.  You say it's far fetched, yet refuse to actually agree with me.

This is has been my strong objection to (lack of) news reporting about Biden's COVID "plan".  What has been made public doesn't specify anything different that what the Trump administration is doing or planning to do.  Having the "right" people in charge does not magically make things better.  All this mask mandate is nonsense.  The issue is not whether masks are mandated.  It's whether enough of the population follows it.  Threatening to arrest people won't accomplish that.  Besides, Biden has acknowledged (in the very press conference I referenced) that he has no authority to impose a national mask mandate anyway.  Top down commands from Washington are counterproductive for many reasons, but especially because public health is a primary, historical function of the states.  It is not the federal government that acts when there is a measles outbreak.  COVID is no different.  If we had a news media that wasn't in the tank for the guy, maybe the vacuousness here would be highlighted.

I continue to dissent from the idea that there is anything significant the federal government can do to "fix" things, as the trends in the rest of the world (in places other than islands or small populations with control of the borders) demonstrate.

Biden has modeled proper anti-pandemic behavior to show the nation what they should be doing. Too many have followed Trump's modeling, and now he has children infected with COVID-19. There have been more than one news report of a Trump follower suffering from COVID-19 admitting that their prior beliefs (following Trump's line) were wrong.


One can also say that the jet plane MIGHT crash if the pilot has a heart attack or there's a mechanical failure. We pray and hope and take precautions so that it doesn't happen. There are back-up plans like a co-pilot who can fly the plane. Redundancy in the mechanical systems.


Saying something "might happen," doesn't mean that it will - especially when we take steps to prevent it from happening.

[James S. Rustad]

Biden has modeled proper anti-pandemic behavior to show the nation what they should be doing. Too many have followed Trump's modeling, and now he has children infected with COVID-19. There have been more than one news report of a Trump follower suffering from COVID-19 admitting that their prior beliefs (following Trump's line) were wrong.

One can also say that the jet plane MIGHT crash if the pilot has a heart attack or there's a mechanical failure. We pray and hope and take precautions so that it doesn't happen. There are back-up plans like a co-pilot who can fly the plane. Redundancy in the mechanical systems.

Saying something "might happen," doesn't mean that it will - especially when we take steps to prevent it from happening.

I'm still waiting for you to explain how a delayed transition might kill 150,000 people.  Biden said it, and you keep defending his statement, but you never explain how it might happen.

[Eugene Crowner]

My experience with a hospital running at capacity is as follows. 

My heart had been beating too fast over the New Year holidays.  On Jan 2, 2018 I reluctantly went to the hospital in Pomona, CA.  Even with flu shots widely available for many years, it turned out to be the middle of a very bad flu season.  The hospital was running at capacity.  Since I was not in pain and since my life was in no immediate danger, I was set off to the side in favor of people with more serious problems.   I was sure that I would be admitted, so time did not matter to me.  I arrived at the emergency room at 9 AM, and did not get to a bed in the emergency room until 1 PM.  At 6 PM they started talking about admitting me.  At 9 PM I was admitted pending an empty bed.  That did not occur until 1 AM.   

A later cardioversion solved the rapid heartbeat problem.

Spending the morning set off to the side of the emergency room was a very interesting experience. 

With the extent of the ordinary flu of that year as background, and with the size of the population of the United States, it would be interesting if the raw number of deaths from COVID19 were posted against some sort of baseline to give additional perspective.

The early models of the pandemic projected more than 2 million deaths in the United States.  If nothing else, we can be thankful the number of deaths have not reached that level, yet.

Eugene Crowner

[Brian Stoffregen]

Biden has modeled proper anti-pandemic behavior to show the nation what they should be doing. Too many have followed Trump's modeling, and now he has children infected with COVID-19. There have been more than one news report of a Trump follower suffering from COVID-19 admitting that their prior beliefs (following Trump's line) were wrong.

One can also say that the jet plane MIGHT crash if the pilot has a heart attack or there's a mechanical failure. We pray and hope and take precautions so that it doesn't happen. There are back-up plans like a co-pilot who can fly the plane. Redundancy in the mechanical systems.

Saying something "might happen," doesn't mean that it will - especially when we take steps to prevent it from happening.

I'm still waiting for you to explain how a delayed transition might kill 150,000 people.  Biden said it, and you keep defending his statement, but you never explain how it might happen.

I don't claim to read his mind … or any other minds. I cannot tell you what he was thinking when he said. I was arguing that the number he stated is possible. I also stated that should it happen, it would not likely be totally because of a delay in transition.

[peter_speckhard]

Biden has modeled proper anti-pandemic behavior to show the nation what they should be doing. Too many have followed Trump's modeling, and now he has children infected with COVID-19. There have been more than one news report of a Trump follower suffering from COVID-19 admitting that their prior beliefs (following Trump's line) were wrong.

One can also say that the jet plane MIGHT crash if the pilot has a heart attack or there's a mechanical failure. We pray and hope and take precautions so that it doesn't happen. There are back-up plans like a co-pilot who can fly the plane. Redundancy in the mechanical systems.

Saying something "might happen," doesn't mean that it will - especially when we take steps to prevent it from happening.

I'm still waiting for you to explain how a delayed transition might kill 150,000 people.  Biden said it, and you keep defending his statement, but you never explain how it might happen.

I don't claim to read his mind … or any other minds. I cannot tell you what he was thinking when he said. I was arguing that the number he stated is possible. I also stated that should it happen, it would not likely be totally because of a delay in transition.

So if I say that tens of millions of birds are going to fly south with fall/winter because of your forum posts, you think the thing to do would be to verify the number of birds that fly south. In other words, treat the stated measurable fact as the point of debate rather than the asserted cause/effect. Everybody knows that many people are likely to die of the virus in the coming months. Whether 150,000 is a realistic assessment isn't really the point of contention. The pure assertion is that they are dying or will die because the presidential transition is not going smoothly enough. Common sense says that the acrimony of the presidential transition has as little to do with people dying from the virus as your forum posts have to do with birds flying south. 

[Brian Stoffregen]

Biden has modeled proper anti-pandemic behavior to show the nation what they should be doing. Too many have followed Trump's modeling, and now he has children infected with COVID-19. There have been more than one news report of a Trump follower suffering from COVID-19 admitting that their prior beliefs (following Trump's line) were wrong.

One can also say that the jet plane MIGHT crash if the pilot has a heart attack or there's a mechanical failure. We pray and hope and take precautions so that it doesn't happen. There are back-up plans like a co-pilot who can fly the plane. Redundancy in the mechanical systems.

Saying something "might happen," doesn't mean that it will - especially when we take steps to prevent it from happening.

I'm still waiting for you to explain how a delayed transition might kill 150,000 people.  Biden said it, and you keep defending his statement, but you never explain how it might happen.

I don't claim to read his mind … or any other minds. I cannot tell you what he was thinking when he said. I was arguing that the number he stated is possible. I also stated that should it happen, it would not likely be totally because of a delay in transition.

So if I say that tens of millions of birds are going to fly south with fall/winter because of your forum posts, you think the thing to do would be to verify the number of birds that fly south. In other words, treat the stated measurable fact as the point of debate rather than the asserted cause/effect. Everybody knows that many people are likely to die of the virus in the coming months. Whether 150,000 is a realistic assessment isn't really the point of contention. The pure assertion is that they are dying or will die because the presidential transition is not going smoothly enough. Common sense says that the acrimony of the presidential transition has as little to do with people dying from the virus as your forum posts have to do with birds flying south.

When I have started a new Call, it was immensely helpful to know things like who picks them hymns (the pastor, the organist, a music committee)? Who plans and types the bulletin (the pastor, the secretary, a worship committee)? At one church, I found out shortly before the Maundy Thursday worship that that's when they traditionally have celebrated First Communion. I would have planned the service somewhat differently if I had known that. At another church, I found the pews lined with quilts on Easter Sunday. That's when I found out that that's when they bless and then distribute the quilts during the week. Had I known earlier, I would have done things a bit differently.


Not knowing what's going on is a hindrance. Even if I wouldn't have changed any of it, I certainly would have been better prepared and done more to recognize the first communion kids and the quilters. In subsequent years, I knew and did much better. I'm one who wrote a script for the liturgy, including a sermon manuscript, and I didn't stray too far from the text in front of me.

[Brian Stoffregen]

Biden has modeled proper anti-pandemic behavior to show the nation what they should be doing. Too many have followed Trump's modeling, and now he has children infected with COVID-19. There have been more than one news report of a Trump follower suffering from COVID-19 admitting that their prior beliefs (following Trump's line) were wrong.

One can also say that the jet plane MIGHT crash if the pilot has a heart attack or there's a mechanical failure. We pray and hope and take precautions so that it doesn't happen. There are back-up plans like a co-pilot who can fly the plane. Redundancy in the mechanical systems.

Saying something "might happen," doesn't mean that it will - especially when we take steps to prevent it from happening.

I'm still waiting for you to explain how a delayed transition might kill 150,000 people.  Biden said it, and you keep defending his statement, but you never explain how it might happen.

I don't claim to read his mind … or any other minds. I cannot tell you what he was thinking when he said. I was arguing that the number he stated is possible. I also stated that should it happen, it would not likely be totally because of a delay in transition.

So if I say that tens of millions of birds are going to fly south with fall/winter because of your forum posts, you think the thing to do would be to verify the number of birds that fly south. In other words, treat the stated measurable fact as the point of debate rather than the asserted cause/effect. Everybody knows that many people are likely to die of the virus in the coming months. Whether 150,000 is a realistic assessment isn't really the point of contention. The pure assertion is that they are dying or will die because the presidential transition is not going smoothly enough. Common sense says that the acrimony of the presidential transition has as little to do with people dying from the virus as your forum posts have to do with birds flying south.

If you said that "tens of millions of birds are going to fly south with fall/winter" I wouldn't worry one iota about the number. I wouldn't worry much about your reasoning either. I know that lots of birds fly south whether or not I post anything on the forum. It's going to happen. Now, if I were hunting some of the birds, I might say: "Yes, but I hope that there will be a few less because of my efforts."

[Charles Austin]

Here’s a serious question, folks.
Now that a vaccine (actually several vaccines) is on the way, are you ready to take it? Will you take it?

[J. Thomas Shelley]

Here’s a serious question, folks.
Now that a vaccine (actually several vaccines) is on the way, are you ready to take it? Will you take it?

I have taken the season flu vaccine annually for decades.

I will take any COVID vaccine that has not been produced with fetal stem cells.

[peter_speckhard]

Here’s a serious question, folks.
Now that a vaccine (actually several vaccines) is on the way, are you ready to take it? Will you take it?

Sure, if anyone wants me to. I'm not really afraid of getting Covid, though, so I would gladly defer to those who want/need it more. My son volunteered to be in a vaccine testing program. Not sure if he's being injected with a trial vaccine or a placebo, but he doesn't seem to have any real worries either way.

[jebutler]

Here’s a serious question, folks.
Now that a vaccine (actually several vaccines) is on the way, are you ready to take it? Will you take it?

Three vaccines have finished their testing and two more are finishing up.

I don't know if I'm "ready to take" one or not. How does one get ready? What does "ready to take" a vaccine look like?

Will I take it? When I'm allowed to, I will. Why do you ask? Are you planning to refuse to take it?

[Richard Johnson]

What I'm curious about--and I'm not sure any of you really know, but maybe--is who determines what vaccines get distributed to whom or where? We actually have a guy in our church who is involved at a very high level in this whole vaccine thing, so maybe I can ask him if I get a chance. But I'm very curious about it. And yes, I'll absolutely be in line to take it, whichever "it" it might be.

[Charles Austin]

I think it works this way.
Medical workers are to get it first, and those working directly with the sick.
Then the elderly and those with greater risk of serious and potentially fatal infection.
Supposedly there are plans in hand for massive distribution headed by an army General skilled in logistics. This is good. When the army is not being asked to kill people and blow things up, they are really good at getting things done and moving stuff around.