Author Topic: Coronavirus news  (Read 398992 times)

Steven W Bohler

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1605 on: May 20, 2020, 11:17:53 AM »

Caution: Thread Drift - I intend to talk about coronavirus.

President Trump has been criticized for using hydroxychloroquine under the supervision of his doctor. One comment of his in particular I think does well deserve criticism, namely "What can it hurt?" As a matter of fact, that medication does carry with it a demonstrated risk of heart complications. It is well tolerated by many, but for some the use of the drug is dangerous. For those who take it for recognized therapeutic purposes, the risk is worth the benefit. Whether the benefit in using it for coronavirus is worth the risk is certainly debatable. At least Trump is not self medicating but under a doctor's supervision.

Another treatment for this coronavirus pandemic is wide use is stay at home orders and isolation. Seems to me that some have taken a kind of "What can it hurt?" attitude. Draconian stay at home orders that have halted wide swaths of economic and social activity seems to have helped "flatten the curve" and saved lives. But this remedy has not been without its attendant risks and damages. Lives have been lost and many more lives damaged by this isolation policy. Have we derived more benefit than cost from stay at home orders? Likely. But an attitude of "What can it hurt?" towards isolation ignores the very real hurt that it has caused and continues to cause. Continuing stay at home orders needs to carefully assess the cost/benefit ratio and not done lightly lest we end up doing more long term damage to people and society than the virus itself. At some point the cost, not only monetary but in damage to lives, of isolation in a region becomes greater than the cost of controlled reopening.
Thanks for this prospective ... if I understand things correctly, our Minnesota brethren are still prohibited from in person worship ... while gyms and hair stylists are permitted to operate.

If gyms and hairstylists are permitted to operate, why canít churches that tape precautions such as Rev Speckhardís example https://youtu.be/hgayX9XL5pM safely operate?

Perhaps the governor is afraid of a yet undisclosed Ďfull contact hair pullingí sacrament.  >:(

No, in Minnesota, gyms and hair stylists (like churches) are still not able to open. 

Rob Morris

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1606 on: May 20, 2020, 11:30:05 AM »
This news from FL. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242851256.html

One is reminded of Sen. Moynihan's statement that everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but no one is entitled to their own facts. 

Or as Pat Michael's had on his door in the Envi Sci department when I was an undergrad "you know what time it is when the data conflicts with your theory? Time to get new data." I fear people who don't get sarcasm.

This from 538 is also helpful for understanding the Covid-19 death count. The death count is probably being undercounted rather than over counted. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-deaths/

BTW, re: Michigan, my inlaws who have a funeral home there shared that if someone dies in the home and the fire dept or police are called (instead of calling funeral home directly) then the medical examiner also has to come. It seems unlikely to me that licensed medical examiners are labeling non-Covid deaths as Covid deaths.

M. Staneck

But it's complicated: facilities and states that are harder hit are presumably higher priority for aid as well, which does put a thumb on the scale from a reporting standpoint.

Take these two situations, for instance (intentionally chosen from relatively centrist sources):

In PA, the Dept. of Health was using numbers that weren't coming from the county coroners: https://www.weny.com/story/42038259/several-pa-coroners-cite-discrepancies-state-reporting-of-covid-19-deaths

Meanwhile, subsequent to the CARES Act, it is public policy that facilities are reimbursed by gov't assistance programs at different rates for CoVid services: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/

And even if someone doesn't fully trust those sources, I only learned of them through my dad, who is a retired hospital administrator and formerly held positions with the Hospital Assoc. of PA and with the American Hospital Assoc. He said these things totally check out as the way the system is designed (in the case of the gov't assistance) or as a blatant abuse of the system (in the case of the DOH not using coroner's numbers).

As with all CoVid data: it's really complicated right now.

Matt Staneck

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1607 on: May 20, 2020, 11:48:56 AM »
This news from FL. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242851256.html

One is reminded of Sen. Moynihan's statement that everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but no one is entitled to their own facts. 

Or as Pat Michael's had on his door in the Envi Sci department when I was an undergrad "you know what time it is when the data conflicts with your theory? Time to get new data." I fear people who don't get sarcasm.

This from 538 is also helpful for understanding the Covid-19 death count. The death count is probably being undercounted rather than over counted. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-deaths/

BTW, re: Michigan, my inlaws who have a funeral home there shared that if someone dies in the home and the fire dept or police are called (instead of calling funeral home directly) then the medical examiner also has to come. It seems unlikely to me that licensed medical examiners are labeling non-Covid deaths as Covid deaths.

M. Staneck

But it's complicated: facilities and states that are harder hit are presumably higher priority for aid as well, which does put a thumb on the scale from a reporting standpoint.

Take these two situations, for instance (intentionally chosen from relatively centrist sources):

In PA, the Dept. of Health was using numbers that weren't coming from the county coroners: https://www.weny.com/story/42038259/several-pa-coroners-cite-discrepancies-state-reporting-of-covid-19-deaths

Meanwhile, subsequent to the CARES Act, it is public policy that facilities are reimbursed by gov't assistance programs at different rates for CoVid services: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/

And even if someone doesn't fully trust those sources, I only learned of them through my dad, who is a retired hospital administrator and formerly held positions with the Hospital Assoc. of PA and with the American Hospital Assoc. He said these things totally check out as the way the system is designed (in the case of the gov't assistance) or as a blatant abuse of the system (in the case of the DOH not using coroner's numbers).

As with all CoVid data: it's really complicated right now.

Complicated, yes. The 538 piece talks about how counting deaths for Covid, or in general, is complicated.

What I don't buy is the idea that Covid deaths are being exaggerated or over-counted. Again, I think on the whole it bears out that the opposite is true. I do buy, however, that counting deaths is complicated.

M. Staneck
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St. John's Evangelical Lutheran Church
Queens, NY

Richard Johnson

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1608 on: May 20, 2020, 11:59:59 AM »
If James Eivan is telling the truth, then I repent of my first conclusion. If not, I do not.
...And if Rev Austin is no longer beating his wife ... Oh well, if he doesn't realize there is a cat visible over his shoulder in a picture he has posted and has been viewed by an unknown number of forum viewers, he won't realize his predilection to accusations he is unable to support is far more insidious than the virus itself.

By the way, doubt has been expressed in the past as to the REAL identity of Rev Austin as well ...
Are we sure that Charles Austin is a real person and not a worm or virus?

Why are you obsessed over Charles Austin?

Charles Derangement Syndrome.

I can actually vouch for the fact that Charles is a real person, unlike "Mr. Eivan" who has declined to provide me with any evidence that the same is true for him.
The Rev. Richard O. Johnson, STS

Dave Likeness

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1609 on: May 20, 2020, 12:21:10 PM »
As many of our posters know......Eivan is a popular bottled water.  It is natural
spring water from the French Alps.  Perhaps Mr. Eivan on this Forum is related
to this water distributor.

JEdwards

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1610 on: May 20, 2020, 12:35:33 PM »
Another treatment for this coronavirus pandemic is wide use is stay at home orders and isolation. Seems to me that some have taken a kind of "What can it hurt?" attitude. Draconian stay at home orders that have halted wide swaths of economic and social activity seems to have helped "flatten the curve" and saved lives. But this remedy has not been without its attendant risks and damages. Lives have been lost and many more lives damaged by this isolation policy. Have we derived more benefit than cost from stay at home orders? Likely. But an attitude of "What can it hurt?" towards isolation ignores the very real hurt that it has caused and continues to cause. Continuing stay at home orders needs to carefully assess the cost/benefit ratio and not done lightly lest we end up doing more long term damage to people and society than the virus itself. At some point the cost, not only monetary but in damage to lives, of isolation in a region becomes greater than the cost of controlled reopening.
We're finally starting to see a little bit of data on that question in studies like this one from the JAMA network:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2766229

The study looked at rates of new cases in all counties bordering the Mississippi River in Illinois and Iowa and attempted to discern whether the trajectories in the two states diverged after Illinois' stay-at-home order.  The rough estimate was that cases (N.B. cases, not hospitalizations or deaths) in Iowa might have been 30% lower had a stay-at-home order been issued in Iowa at the same time as in Illinois.  I would say it's a pretty rough estimate, and it's fair to have a cost-benefit debate about stay at home orders, but this is the most current and scientifically rigorous data I have seen.

Peace,
Jon

Charles Austin

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1611 on: May 20, 2020, 01:54:31 PM »
The water is Evian, not Eivan 
It is terrific, health-improving water. Evian is just a few miles from Geneva, and I have been there many times.
Retired ELCA pastor. Iowa born. Back home from Sioux City after three days and a pleasant reunion of the East High School class of - can you believe it! - 1959.

James J Eivan

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1612 on: May 20, 2020, 02:22:57 PM »

Caution: Thread Drift - I intend to talk about coronavirus.

President Trump has been criticized for using hydroxychloroquine under the supervision of his doctor. One comment of his in particular I think does well deserve criticism, namely "What can it hurt?" As a matter of fact, that medication does carry with it a demonstrated risk of heart complications. It is well tolerated by many, but for some the use of the drug is dangerous. For those who take it for recognized therapeutic purposes, the risk is worth the benefit. Whether the benefit in using it for coronavirus is worth the risk is certainly debatable. At least Trump is not self medicating but under a doctor's supervision.

Another treatment for this coronavirus pandemic is wide use is stay at home orders and isolation. Seems to me that some have taken a kind of "What can it hurt?" attitude. Draconian stay at home orders that have halted wide swaths of economic and social activity seems to have helped "flatten the curve" and saved lives. But this remedy has not been without its attendant risks and damages. Lives have been lost and many more lives damaged by this isolation policy. Have we derived more benefit than cost from stay at home orders? Likely. But an attitude of "What can it hurt?" towards isolation ignores the very real hurt that it has caused and continues to cause. Continuing stay at home orders needs to carefully assess the cost/benefit ratio and not done lightly lest we end up doing more long term damage to people and society than the virus itself. At some point the cost, not only monetary but in damage to lives, of isolation in a region becomes greater than the cost of controlled reopening.
Thanks for this prospective ... if I understand things correctly, our Minnesota brethren are still prohibited from in person worship ... while gyms and hair stylists are permitted to operate.

If gyms and hairstylists are permitted to operate, why canít churches that tape precautions such as Rev Speckhardís example https://youtu.be/hgayX9XL5pM safely operate?

Perhaps the governor is afraid of a yet undisclosed Ďfull contact hair pullingí sacrament.  >:(

No, in Minnesota, gyms and hair stylists (like churches) are still not able to open. 
Oops .. my bad ... apparently I misread the information shared with me.   Thank you for clarifying the Minnesota governorís orders.


Charles Austin

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1614 on: May 20, 2020, 07:44:46 PM »
It will be interesting to watch, first, how many churches actually do this, that is open up; second, whether people actually come; third, whether the state tries to do anything about it; and fourth, what happens in a couple of weeks When we will know whether the virus has claimed any new victims.
Retired ELCA pastor. Iowa born. Back home from Sioux City after three days and a pleasant reunion of the East High School class of - can you believe it! - 1959.

Charles Austin

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1615 on: May 20, 2020, 08:00:11 PM »
Maybe Iíll head for a nearby Missouri Synod church on Sunday, just to see how it goes.
Retired ELCA pastor. Iowa born. Back home from Sioux City after three days and a pleasant reunion of the East High School class of - can you believe it! - 1959.

Dave Benke

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1616 on: May 20, 2020, 08:11:43 PM »
We're up to a ten person limit in NY, but I'm not sure if that applies to NYC.  In terms of zips 11208, 11207, 11236 we continue to be hammered by the virus.  Our school staff speaks with, teaches and counsels 80 families every day; our church neighbors and local politicians join with us in giving PPE to whomever we can, feeding those who are hungry, and waiting for the virus to subside.  We'll be OK at 10 plus for awhile, and maintain the Eucharistic fast until
we have thoroughly cleaned our facility
we have checked with the Department of Health
we have set up the sanctuary appropriately
we have contacted the members to give a plan for re-opening effectively.

Dave Benke

James J Eivan

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1617 on: May 20, 2020, 08:20:25 PM »
Quote from: LCMS Minnesota District Presidents
We were disappointed to find that instead, you allowed retail and other non-critical businesses to open, setting a plan in place for bars and restaurants to reopen while limiting churches to meetings of ten people or fewer. In the absence of a timeline or any other assurances that churches will soon be able to reopen, we find that we must move forward with our religious exercise in a safe manner.
It seems rather disingenuous to believe that bar and restaurant patrons are better prepared to social distance than those who gather in sanctuaries across the state.  More ironic is that many of the bar restaurant patrons are being denied the right and privilege to social distance in sanctuaries in the same manner as they are allowed in the establishments the governor has allowed to open.


Perhaps the good people of Minnesota should elect a governor the caliber of the 20th Governor 100 years ago.

Steven W Bohler

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1618 on: May 20, 2020, 08:29:08 PM »
https://www.becketlaw.org/media/minnesota-churches-tell-governor-walz-resuming-person-worship-services/

Three cheers for these leaders!  This is EXACTLY what I was praying our church bodies would do.  Thank You, Lord!!!

Steven W Bohler

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1619 on: May 20, 2020, 08:29:40 PM »
Maybe Iíll head for a nearby Missouri Synod church on Sunday, just to see how it goes.

I can recommend some good ones for you, if you would like.