Author Topic: Coronavirus news  (Read 394996 times)

James J Eivan

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1440 on: May 03, 2020, 06:04:25 PM »
The Mercury News reports that there will be a Live Presidential Town Hall beginning at 7p/6p central.


Yes, this is a Fox News presentation ... but Fox has included Democratic candidates in their town hall productions in the past.

Interesting enough, Nielsen Media Research reports that President Trump’s last Town Hall on March 5 was the most watched election town hall ever on cable news.


Charles Austin

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1441 on: May 03, 2020, 06:48:46 PM »
Associated Press has a long fact-checker today concerning the President's comments on testing. Virtually everything he has said about testing and how great it is and what a good job he is doing is contradicted by his own people who are dealing with the issue of testing. They will probably all be fired.
Retired ELCA pastor. Iowa born. Heading home from Sioux City after three days and a reunion of the East High School class of - can you believe it! - 1959.

Steven Tibbetts

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1442 on: May 03, 2020, 07:29:32 PM »
Associated Press has a long fact-checker today concerning the President's comments on testing. Virtually everything he has said about testing and how great it is and what a good job he is doing is contradicted by his own people who are dealing with the issue of testing. They will probably all be fired.

Any news scribbler offering "fact checks" about this virus is lying.  Even those who have studied it most are still guessing.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2020, 09:23:09 PM by The Rev. Steven P. Tibbetts, STS »
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Dave Likeness

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1443 on: May 03, 2020, 07:39:14 PM »
The truth is there are no EXPERTS on the Coronavirus.  This has been a guessing game
from the start as how to deal with it. Until a vaccine is developed to treat it, we are
going to continue spinning our wheels.  The John Hopkins University Hospital  is perhaps
a good place to start with an experienced medical staff now trying to learn as much as
possible. 

James J Eivan

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1444 on: May 03, 2020, 09:10:10 PM »
Associated Press has a long fact-checker today concerning the President's comments on testing. Virtually everything he has said about testing and how great it is and what a good job he is doing is contradicted by his own people who are dealing with the issue of testing. They will probably all be fired.
Your parroting of political ‘talking points’ is appalling ... NO ONE has had the nerve to state ‘How often should each and every person be tested’?


 If I am tested today ... how soon should I be tested again?  A test today is a snap shot in time ... I can be negative today ... interact with numerous people tomorrow ... even with masks and social distancing NO ONE can guarantee that I will not be positive tomorrow, Friday, next week. 


If you really believed in testing ... if testing were really the be all end all, there would be a definitive answer to that question.   


I fault no one for not having an answer to the testing question  ... the fault squarely lies with the political/media type pushing their tragically partisan agenda. /Rant off 😏

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1445 on: May 03, 2020, 10:39:07 PM »
I enjoyed the interview and the information.
When I keep in mind that my President is a salesman given to tics of puffery I find him awkwardly winsome.

Peter (So, there.) Garrison
« Last Edit: May 04, 2020, 01:27:37 AM by pastorg1@aol.com »
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Charles Austin

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1446 on: May 03, 2020, 11:16:31 PM »
Pastor Garrison writes;
When I keep in mind that my President is a salesman given to tics of puffery then I find him awkwardly winsome.

I comment:
I might find him awkwardly amusing as a third-rate tv personality given to tics of puffery.
But he is that and he is The President. Not amusing. At all.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2020, 12:27:13 AM by Charles Austin »
Retired ELCA pastor. Iowa born. Heading home from Sioux City after three days and a reunion of the East High School class of - can you believe it! - 1959.

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1447 on: May 05, 2020, 04:23:17 AM »
From The New York Times today - dispute if you wish, my question below
(The story contains a link to the actual report)
WASHINGTON — As President Trump presses states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in coronavirus infections and deaths over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1 — nearly double the current level.
    The projections, based on data collected by various agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and laid out in an internal document obtained Monday by The New York Times, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of May, up from about 30,000 cases now. There are currently about 1,750 deaths per day, the data shows.
    They are not the only ones forecasting more carnage. Another model, closely watched by the White House, raised its fatality projections on Monday to more than 134,000 American deaths from Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, by early August. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington more than doubled its previous projection of about 60,000 total deaths, an increase that it said partly reflects “changes in mobility and social distancing policies.”
   The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, the prognosis has not markedly improved. As states reopen — many without meeting White House guidelines that call for a steady decline in coronavirus cases or in the number of people testing positive over a 14-day period — the cost of the shift is likely to be tallied in funerals.
“There remains a large number of counties whose burden continues to grow,” the C.D.C. warned, alongside a map that offered a detailed view of the growth of the pandemic.
   The projections amplify the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation right back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways amid overloaded health systems.
   Under the White House’s reopening plan, called “Opening Up America Again,” states considering relaxing stay-at-home policies are supposed to show a “downward trajectory” either in the number of new infections or positive tests as a percent of total tests over 14 days, and a “robust testing program” for at-risk health care workers.
   But some of the states moving the quickest are not honoring all of those guidelines.
Link to the story
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-death-toll.html
My question:
If the report predicts more sickness and death, why the praise for “opening up”?
Retired ELCA pastor. Iowa born. Heading home from Sioux City after three days and a reunion of the East High School class of - can you believe it! - 1959.

peter_speckhard

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1448 on: May 05, 2020, 09:53:18 AM »
From The New York Times today - dispute if you wish, my question below
(The story contains a link to the actual report)
WASHINGTON — As President Trump presses states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in coronavirus infections and deaths over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1 — nearly double the current level.
    The projections, based on data collected by various agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and laid out in an internal document obtained Monday by The New York Times, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of May, up from about 30,000 cases now. There are currently about 1,750 deaths per day, the data shows.
    They are not the only ones forecasting more carnage. Another model, closely watched by the White House, raised its fatality projections on Monday to more than 134,000 American deaths from Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, by early August. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington more than doubled its previous projection of about 60,000 total deaths, an increase that it said partly reflects “changes in mobility and social distancing policies.”
   The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, the prognosis has not markedly improved. As states reopen — many without meeting White House guidelines that call for a steady decline in coronavirus cases or in the number of people testing positive over a 14-day period — the cost of the shift is likely to be tallied in funerals.
“There remains a large number of counties whose burden continues to grow,” the C.D.C. warned, alongside a map that offered a detailed view of the growth of the pandemic.
   The projections amplify the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation right back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways amid overloaded health systems.
   Under the White House’s reopening plan, called “Opening Up America Again,” states considering relaxing stay-at-home policies are supposed to show a “downward trajectory” either in the number of new infections or positive tests as a percent of total tests over 14 days, and a “robust testing program” for at-risk health care workers.
   But some of the states moving the quickest are not honoring all of those guidelines.
Link to the story
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-death-toll.html
My question:
If the report predicts more sickness and death, why the praise for “opening up”?
I think the answer is contained in the article: "The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, the prognosis has not markedly improved."

The forecasts have no record of even moderate reliability. They are guesses. Hunkering down was never going to prevent the fact that in time the virus will likely affect a major percentage of the population. And those with other vulnerabilities could very well die from it. The shut-down was designed to prevent otherwise preventable deaths due to overwhelming the medical system. That is no longer a real threat in most places. Ventilators sit unused. So, yes, people will continue to die from a virus that has no vaccine, but no one will die needlessly due to lack of access to a ICU room anymore. We managed to flatten the curve, which did not save the lives of anyone who was especially vulnerable to the virus; it saved the lives of people who could survive the virus only with emergency medical care. When you flatten the curve, you don't reduce the overall number of people who get infected; you delay it for people, meaning fewer now than otherwise would have been, but more later.

The better question would be what are those who favor sheltering in place longer waiting for? For the virus to go away? A vaccine a year or two from now?


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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1449 on: May 05, 2020, 11:23:10 AM »
I have noticed that it is wrong to questions one's governor or mayor, and that doing so makes one a dangerous fanatic.  But it is the height of patriotism to question one's president.  Oh, unless you are in Florida, and then it is again your duty to question the governor who has succeeded in holding COVID-19 infections and deaths to about a tenth of what happened in New York, even though Florida has a higher population than New York.  Its hard to keep track of these things.   ::)
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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1450 on: May 05, 2020, 11:41:56 AM »
From The New York Times today - dispute if you wish, my question below
(The story contains a link to the actual report)
WASHINGTON — As President Trump presses states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in coronavirus infections and deaths over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1 — nearly double the current level.
    The projections, based on data collected by various agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and laid out in an internal document obtained Monday by The New York Times, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of May, up from about 30,000 cases now. There are currently about 1,750 deaths per day, the data shows.
    They are not the only ones forecasting more carnage. Another model, closely watched by the White House, raised its fatality projections on Monday to more than 134,000 American deaths from Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, by early August. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington more than doubled its previous projection of about 60,000 total deaths, an increase that it said partly reflects “changes in mobility and social distancing policies.”
   The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, the prognosis has not markedly improved. As states reopen — many without meeting White House guidelines that call for a steady decline in coronavirus cases or in the number of people testing positive over a 14-day period — the cost of the shift is likely to be tallied in funerals.
“There remains a large number of counties whose burden continues to grow,” the C.D.C. warned, alongside a map that offered a detailed view of the growth of the pandemic.
   The projections amplify the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation right back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways amid overloaded health systems.
   Under the White House’s reopening plan, called “Opening Up America Again,” states considering relaxing stay-at-home policies are supposed to show a “downward trajectory” either in the number of new infections or positive tests as a percent of total tests over 14 days, and a “robust testing program” for at-risk health care workers.
   But some of the states moving the quickest are not honoring all of those guidelines.
Link to the story
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-death-toll.html
My question:
If the report predicts more sickness and death, why the praise for “opening up”?


The model may or may not be precisely right, although the relaxation of restrictions almost certainly will speed the spread of the disease and the number of deaths in the short term almost certainly will increase.  (The Swedish approach will prove an interesting case study into whether remaining open saved lives in the long run.  We won't know that answer for months, of course.  But Sweden's experiences should provide valuable data to policy makers.)


All that said, the disease is not the only purveyor of sickness and death.  The lockdown also threatens physical health.  Moreover, it threatens crushing emotional, mental, and economic ruin.  Policy makers therefore are left with hard choices.


Most seem to be starting down the path toward reopening.  However, reopening does not mean an immediate return to February behavior.  States and local governments are likely to relax restrictions incrementally.  If the uptick in illness is too severe, they can slow down or even reverse the opening process. 


In addition, policy makers need to continue to bolster protection for those most at risk.  Senior care facilities need to be locked down hard.  Those at higher risk of infection or death--older and sicker people--will be well advised to continue to shelter at home.


On top of all this, armed with the facts, people will continue to take precautions not necessarily mandated by the government.  A strong argument can be made that people should be free to make their own judgments regarding the risks they choose to take (risks imposed by the virus, by keeping businesses closed, and other risks).  This argument holds up well unless and until the capacity of our health-care facilities comes under stress, which has not happened except to some extent in the NYC area.


Another factor to consider is that people are beginning to rebel strict lockdowns.  Some might argue that this is happening primarily in red states and among Trumpian folk.  In my experience, that's not accurate.  Last weekend in DC, the parks were mobbed with people, a large number of whom were not keeping their distance from others.  The Mall was crowded with people watching the Blue Angels show.  Backyards were filled with moderately sized gatherings.  Young people were attending house parties in droves.  No matter what anyone might think of the lockdown, it will not hold.  Managing its loosening carefully strikes me as far more logical than maintaining restrictions that people will not abide.


Bottom line:  This is not a binary choice between locking down to save lives or opening up in disregard of the resulting consequences.  Instead, it's a question of balancing policy and private conduct to minimize the devastating harm threatened both by the virus and by the tough steps taken to fight the virus. 

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1451 on: May 05, 2020, 11:53:15 AM »
https://fw-d7-freedomworks-org.s3.amazonaws.com/Governors%20Report%20Card-V4.pdf

This link is from a self identified "conservative" source, but has a good snapshot of the various states plans to open up their economies.  They plan to keep their data current.
Mark (retired pastor, golfs the pastures) Renner

Steven Tibbetts

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1452 on: May 05, 2020, 06:55:16 PM »

My question:
If the report predicts more sickness and death, why the praise for “opening up”?

Consider the sickness and death that come with 30% unemployment, the economy rapidly contracting (GDP shrank 4.8% in Jan-Mar, most of that quarter being before the economy was "shut down" -- note: even in early March, the expectations was for 1st qtr growth of 3%), local governments losing sales tax revenue and therefore unable to actually pay for anything, the bankrupting of hospitals that are only being half used, etc.

Consider that, as devastating as this virus can be for those of already compromised health and/or in very close quarters, the increase in testing is revealing that those having it without symptoms is magnitudes greater (in parts of California, 50 times!!, several studies in different parts of the world it's 10-15 times) than the wildest projections before testing was possible.

Pax, Steven+
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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1453 on: May 06, 2020, 11:43:21 AM »
It's fascinating that several doctors (who are easily verified online as such) have posted videos questioning the party line on this virus, and all of them have been removed from youtube.  I'll be curious to see how long this one lasts:

https://youtu.be/fsi9csLNb-Y
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Richard Johnson

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Re: Coronavirus news
« Reply #1454 on: May 06, 2020, 01:24:35 PM »
It's fascinating that several doctors (who are easily verified online as such) have posted videos questioning the party line on this virus, and all of them have been removed from youtube.  I'll be curious to see how long this one lasts:

https://youtu.be/fsi9csLNb-Y

Your source for saying these videos have been removed?

I have to say, I'm immediately unimpressed by a video that speaks of her "doc-tor-ee-al" thesis.

Doctors are a dime a dozen, of course, and you can find a "doctor" who will say most anything. Epidemiologists and virologists are a small subset, and likely more worthy of being listened to in the current situation than chiropractors or family medicine specialists or cancer doctors.
The Rev. Richard O. Johnson, STS