Election 2020

[Keith Falk]

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com offers a bountiful array of analyses driven by a lot of under-the-hood number-crunching. Here is the site's dashboard for the 2020 Democrats' primary schedule: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/.

Their podcast is also unfailingly interesting.

It is one of my go to podcasts.  I have yet to be bored listening to them - it doesn't mean I always agree with them, but their presentations are done really well.

[Brian Stoffregen]

One area that capitalistic and market driven economics does well is provide incentives for people to work and be productive. If they work well they can receive economic rewards for their success. (One of the reasons for reasonable regulation is to protect against the strong who would rig the system to rob those who work of the fruits of their labor.) If one does not work well, they receive less.

Studies have shown that "economic rewards" are not a good incentive for working. In fact, there are illustrations that economic rewards, rather than be an incentive for working become incentives for cheating and lying, e.g., the administrators at VA hospitals who received bonuses for meeting goals. Rather than meet the goals, they lied about it.


Certainly, there is a drive for people to earn enough to get what they need; but beyond the necessities, there are more important factors that motivate people to work. (These certainly can apply to congregations that usually rely on something other than monetary rewards for the volunteer work that is needed.


A video based on Daniel Pink's book: Drive: The Surprising Truth about what Motivates Us.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6XAPnuFjJc

[Steven Tibbetts]

Studies have shown that "economic rewards" are not a good incentive for working. In fact, there are illustrations that economic rewards, rather than be an incentive for working become incentives for cheating and lying, e.g., the administrators at VA hospitals who received bonuses for meeting goals. Rather than meet the goals, they lied about it.

VA hospitals are not an example of "capitalistic and market driven economics."  As for cheating and lying, that's one reason there are auditors. 

I'd also be curious as to how these studies (or, for that matter, you and those reporting about them) define "economic rewards," because that is not solely matters that can be measured in dollars and cents. 

Pax, Steven+

[RDPreus]

When capitalism is being criticized, it would be helpful to know how the word is being defined.  Insofar as capitalism is just another word for free enterprise, where people are free to buy and sell at prices arrived at by mutual agreement between people entering into a voluntary contractual relationship with one another, I fail to see how there could be anything wrong with it.  If greedy people want to get the government to give them unfair advantages over others, this isn't free enterprise, but its opposite.  When it comes down to a choice between free enterprise and socialism, the choice is easy.  Respecting personal liberty is to respect one another's dignity and humanity.  To empower the state to manage the economy is both boastful and vain.  The incompetence of government in this regard is obvious.

[Richard Johnson]

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com offers a bountiful array of analyses driven by a lot of under-the-hood number-crunching. Here is the site's dashboard for the 2020 Democrats' primary schedule: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/.

Their podcast is also unfailingly interesting.

It is one of my go to podcasts.  I have yet to be bored listening to them - it doesn't mean I always agree with them, but their presentations are done really well.

Yes. The focus is on "data" (i.e., polling)--what it's useful for, what's inappropriate use of data, how effective polls are conducted, what the current data is showing, etc. Very informative.

[Charles Austin]

Pastor Preus:
If greedy people want to get the government to give them unfair advantages over others, this isn't free enterprise, but its opposite.
Me:
Please preach this to the so-called “free enterprise capitalists” who give tax breaks to the rich, let benefits given to big business trample others etc.etc.

[Matt Hummel]

So Charles and other who continually deliver vitriolic diatribes against the current president, are you going to take ownership of how your words have consequences?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/482668-florida-man-who-struck-gop-voter-tent-says-he-was-motivated-by%3famp

[RDPreus]

Pastor Preus:
If greedy people want to get the government to give them unfair advantages over others, this isn't free enterprise, but its opposite.
Me:
Please preach this to the so-called “free enterprise capitalists” who give tax breaks to the rich, let benefits given to big business trample others etc.etc.

Just as religious hypocrites hide behind holy sounding words, so corrupt businessmen sing the praises of free enterprise while buying special favors from the government.  Big businesses are notorious for gaming the system in their favor.  You'll get no argument from me about that! 

I would point out, however, that the tax cuts on business that Trump and the Republicans passed helped American business to be competitive around the world.  High taxes on business hurt consumers, anyway, as the cost is past on in higher prices.  A cut in the income tax will ~always~ go to those who are better off because poor people don't pay income tax.  While big spending Democrats don't want to admit it, the Laffer Curve was accurate.  There is a point at which higher taxes will yield less revenue for the government.  A country cannot tax its way into prosperity.  We will all learn this the hard way if Bernie Sanders (God forbid!) is elected president.

[mj4]

Until I learn more about what Bernie Sanders and his comrades mean by Democratic Socialism, I don't trust it.

Here's what his comrades in Sweden say:

Business policy and competitiveness
In a strong society, a competitive business world is needed

Sweden has long been a competitive country. Swedish goods and services are in demand around the world. This is important for more jobs and stronger welfare. Sweden and Swedish companies are performing well in global competition. Swedish exports take world market shares and growth is high.

The Social Democrats want:

• that the business climate in Sweden promotes the start-up of new companies, that companies grow, that companies have the opportunity to hire more and export their goods and services to a greater extent. This way more jobs are created in Sweden
• to increase collaboration between public actors, business and academia and thereby create new, innovative solutions that strengthen competitiveness and contribute to sustainable development and create more jobs
• Strengthen companies' resilience and competitiveness as markets change. Swedish companies must be leaders in digital development and in exploiting the opportunities of digitalisation
• that the skills supply system should meet the needs of the industry and promote its long-term development and that Sweden should be a leader in research in areas that contribute to strengthening the industrial production of goods and services in Sweden.

More growing companies hiring more

Sweden has benefited from openness to the outside world. It has forced a constant renewal to cope with global competition, while at the same time helping to create a stronger society with jobs and welfare. But there are challenges. In order to maintain our competitiveness, it is important that society and the business community can handle the structural transformation. We see that automation and robotisation are crucial to maintaining our competitiveness.

The Social Democrats want to strengthen industrial policy efforts. Small businesses and entrepreneurs must be given the right conditions to grow and develop. We want to increase the opportunities for companies to finance expansion, hire key people, develop new goods and services and get support for exports to growing markets. It is about investing in improved infrastructure and better collaboration between politics, business and academia.

https://www.socialdemokraterna.se/var-politik/a-till-o/naringspolitik-och-konkurrenskraft

[Dan Fienen]

Until I learn more about what Bernie Sanders and his comrades mean by Democratic Socialism, I don't trust it.

Here's what his comrades in Sweden say:

Business policy and competitiveness
In a strong society, a competitive business world is needed

Sweden has long been a competitive country. Swedish goods and services are in demand around the world. This is important for more jobs and stronger welfare. Sweden and Swedish companies are performing well in global competition. Swedish exports take world market shares and growth is high.

The Social Democrats want:

• that the business climate in Sweden promotes the start-up of new companies, that companies grow, that companies have the opportunity to hire more and export their goods and services to a greater extent. This way more jobs are created in Sweden
• to increase collaboration between public actors, business and academia and thereby create new, innovative solutions that strengthen competitiveness and contribute to sustainable development and create more jobs
• Strengthen companies' resilience and competitiveness as markets change. Swedish companies must be leaders in digital development and in exploiting the opportunities of digitalisation
• that the skills supply system should meet the needs of the industry and promote its long-term development and that Sweden should be a leader in research in areas that contribute to strengthening the industrial production of goods and services in Sweden.

More growing companies hiring more

Sweden has benefited from openness to the outside world. It has forced a constant renewal to cope with global competition, while at the same time helping to create a stronger society with jobs and welfare. But there are challenges. In order to maintain our competitiveness, it is important that society and the business community can handle the structural transformation. We see that automation and robotisation are crucial to maintaining our competitiveness.

The Social Democrats want to strengthen industrial policy efforts. Small businesses and entrepreneurs must be given the right conditions to grow and develop. We want to increase the opportunities for companies to finance expansion, hire key people, develop new goods and services and get support for exports to growing markets. It is about investing in improved infrastructure and better collaboration between politics, business and academia.

https://www.socialdemokraterna.se/var-politik/a-till-o/naringspolitik-och-konkurrenskraft

Is that the model that Sanders is proposing?

[jebutler]

I found this article to be thoughtful and interesting:

https://medium.com/@karlyn/ive-been-a-democrat-for-20-years-here-s-what-i-experienced-at-trump-s-rally-in-new-hampshire-c69ddaaf6d07

[mj4]

https://www.socialdemokraterna.se/var-politik/a-till-o/naringspolitik-och-konkurrenskraft

Is that the model that Sanders is proposing?

Sadly, probably not. He would do well to advocate for a mixed economy that promotes social values but avoids the mistakes that Sweden made in years past.

[Dave Likeness]

In all reality the Democrat ticket in November 2020 will be Mike Bloomberg for President
and Amy Klobuchar for Vice President.   This ticket would appeal to everyone and give
the GOP a real battle for the White House.

[Charles Austin]

Bloomberg/Klobuchar yes.
I’d like to see Bloomberg/Oprah, but...

[D. Engebretson]

In all reality the Democrat ticket in November 2020 will be Mike Bloomberg for President
and Amy Klobuchar for Vice President.   This ticket would appeal to everyone and give
the GOP a real battle for the White House.

Battle of the billionaires.  Inspiring to the average voter?