Agreed, got money, got tons of facilities, need enrollment.
Low enrollment at both LCMS seminaries is in my opinion primarily an indicator of deeper more systemic problems. I'd be interested in knowing about enrollment trends at the ELCA and WELS seminaries for comparison' sake. Because of the concern about incursion of debt in a four year post baccalaureate education/formation, the LCMS seminaries have gone to some kind of tuition-free offer. But it's still a long period of time, and there still are debts incurred. Nonetheless - enrollment does not climb substantially when it's offered/marketed as a financial freebie. How can that be?
I would say first that the supply and demand feature is a laggard, because the "entrance level" positions are dwindling and being substantially covered by part-time/retired/merged-merging strategies. And it will continue to be a laggard, becoming even worse because the second "entrance level" which was assistant/associate positions is drying up as the mid-sized congregations feel the pinch and figure out other ways to staff than seminary candidates. Plus there will be more mergings and closures at the lower membership end of the congregation pool.
Secondly, we invest a ton of time and energy in discussing this stuff theologically, and/or separating the theological and practical aspects to "ward off" the practical aspects. There is and can be no promise of a lifetime sinecure at full compensation for seminarians being formed for pastoral ministry. That never would have occurred to us back in the day. Opportunity was boundless. That's just not true anymore at the "career" level. And that's a big impediment to recruitment.
Third, the aging process of Lutherans means there are just less possible enrollees to begin with, and of the less confirmands/high schoolers, there are less who are interested or being directed anyway toward service professions/vocations. Quantifying that is not impossible, and should be done.
Fourth, the level of family and church spiritual formation of children and youth has declined along with the decline in that population in general. When there was a prep school system and I entered it, the Sexta/Freshman religion course was the Catechism, taught by the redoubtable Dean Ackmann. Looking at the student next to me, who was from my Lutheran grade school, we just raised our eyebrows and took our A+, because we had a way more advanced level of catechetics under our belts. And daily devotions in our homes including pretty much memorizing Egermeier's before bedtime prayers. But - there was for freshman high school prep students, a four year religious curriculum in catechesis, old and new testament introduction and Lutheran studies that now would be the college course load at one of our remaining Concordias for church work students. And we had an additional two years in junior college. Where is that these days? In the wind.
Having said that, the upside has been second career pastoral vocation, not only residential but non-residential. There the combo of life lessons and parish catechesis plays an important role. In the COVID environment, however, I think those progams are going to be challenged because of the raw economics of making career transitions, including the economics of congregations.
So - lots of challenges, and there are no doubt more than the few I've mentioned. I personally think there's a need for more focused and determined leadership at the mid-level, in the LCMS the Districts, through honest dialog and persuasion to come up with strategies to deal with the underlying problem of congregational viability and rearrangement. Daunting, but needed. Secondly, two seminary campuses, faculties and overhead - come on.
Dave Benke