Biggest issue at Seminary enrollment...I'm never sure how to handle the comment that I heard not long ago, "well God's not calling men to be pastors like he was." Put that enrollment number on a wall in everybody's office. Pray for it, strategize toward it and watch God open door after door.
This number would sure be a great one to drive other change in LCMS. The conversation could go away from "well we have 40 guys ready to go and 80 churches that need them." Could be something more like, "Well here's 150 candidates who are ready to serve and go into the harvest field, and COP we need 80 more calls to parishes." I'm fairly sure nobody who lives within spitting distance of inside of the 270 Beltway would know how to have the conversation yet. The pressure on the system if we had more church workers may cause it to pop.
That's good from a numerical perspective, Tim. Currently the downsizing concept is that after the small to tiny shakedown cruise that's coming down the pike, the thinking is that we'll have 50 guys ready to go and 50 parishes ready to take somebody. And many of those will be two or three point parishes.
If you front-load an excess of candidates, you could "get away" with it for a year or two, but then it would drive the enrollment down by an even bigger factor, as 50 or 100 men and their families sat waiting in the wings with nothing.
What happened too often in the not-that-distant past was that candidates were sent to congregations that were so marginal that they could really only "afford" a pastor for half a year or so, during which time he was supposed to bring in the necessary membership and money to cover his own compensation. Which is unfair. But which does lead to thought-processes about having a side hustle or an alternate hustle for anyone going to the seminary. Which then is vocationally a potential stretch, even though Paul did it for a long time and mostly, I think, was considered an apostle rather than a tent-maker who had a side Gospel hustle. Then that should be clear to the entering student. I don't know if that's the case.
The underlying question is if we're either closing or more likely merging congregations at an increasing rate, are we opening the same amount or more? What does "opening" mean anymore? In the Missouri Synod, I think the engine for that, which will probably cause trouble on this board, is the large to very large congregations, which can not only spin off daughters, but can also lend leaders and parishioners to the effort to going into X neighborhood where there once was a church or Y neighborhood where we've never been before. That labor and talent pool is already in place, wouldn't you say, Tim?
Dave Benke