The question about the claimed number of 2,000 LCMS churches than can no longer afford to support a full time pastor, and whether multi-congregational parishes are included in such a number is a reasonable one, given a graph showing the number of LCMS clergy and congregations, 1925-2012.
Most of the data comes from ARDA, with the latest data extracted from various Reporter articles. The aberrations in the 1990-1994 data may be data entry errors, but since they occur in both sets, another explanation may exist, such as some synodical convention-related change in the definitions and counting of "church" and "clergy" (the aberrations are only for three years each).
As seen, the reported number of LCMS congregations has been flat at approximately 6,100 for two decades. Over the same period except for a short period, the number of LCMS clergy has increased approximately 10 percent. (In addition, after being essentially constant since 1978, LCMS congregational membership has started to significantly decline since 1999.)
Has the number of new LCMS congregations started annually coincidentally matched the number of LCMS congregation closing annually over the past 20 years? Are congregations who become part of a multi-congregational parish still counted as separate congregations in the data or only one (such as in determing the number of convention delegates they have)? Are congregations, who are not actively seeking to call a pastor, still counted in the number of LCMS congregations? Answers to these questions could address the claim of approximately 2,000 congregations who can't afford a pastor.
I love that style thing, "Carl." "The question is a reasonable one" - oh, I guess I'm the one who raised the question - so I'm agreeing with my estimation of myself. Thank me very much.
Anyway, to the substance, your inquiry has to do with having more pastors and less placements in congregations for pastors. The answer then is "yes," there are more pastors (by far) than there are placements, even taking into consideration
a) the emeritus pastors
b) those who are second/third/fourth pastors in a multi-staff
c) the aging pastors (like me) who superannuate into their 70s
d) the seminary enrollment.
Regarding the last item, the seminary enrollment and class size now is far closer to the demand for candidate calls on a four year basis. It's also far lower than it was. One seminary is lower than the other - Ft. Wayne lower than St. Louis. That doesn't mean it can't/won't work; it does mean that fiscal management and staff/professorial management is necessary, and (my opinion) that having professors active in distance learning and distance locations is a really good option.
The last time we were allowed to use the category "permanently non-calling" congregations, there were (guessing a bit without the data in front of me, but an educated guess) close to 900 of those. Plus a whole bunch of the paired up/served by part-time retirees/edge of marginal congregations. So let's say it's 1500, with another 300 on the way toward that status - that is, making do with 40-75 people in church on a Sunday. Now we're let's say at 1750.
The reason to have more seminary-trained young men in parish pastoral ministry is of course to take the challenge of that high calling. Secondly, it is that with the theological training comes the need/obligation to train others theologically for work as congregational leaders/missioners/deacons and the like, so that a cadre of the non-ordained is working hand in glove with the pastor for the sake of Gospel outreach in Gaspump, Iowa. So from myh perspective I'm looking for able practitioner/theologians (or in the adaptation of the words of William Wallace/Mel Gibson, "Warrior/Poet/Priests") who can also teach and lead by example. Send them all to NYC. Plenty to do.
Dave Benke