I think we are going to see a big bubble get burst over the next few years as the clergy glut works its way through the system. The older pastors are not going to be retiring, in the sense of no longer preaching, as was once thought – as they simply don’t have enough savings to make ends meet without preaching on a regular basis.
In the next few years, there is bound to be a rapid exodus of new pastors from the ministry. (And usually when a pastor leaves in distress church membership and offerings drop). The big reason for the exodus of clergy is that they will not be able to take care of their families. There are just not enough financially viable congregations to provide for the well being of a full time pastor – especially those who are struggling with paying back educational loans. And, pretty soon, more and more Districts will be closing down churches and selling off property to make ends meet. So, the situation will become even worse.
Sure, sometimes God has gives individuals such a profound sense of vocation and missional calling that they, as the early fishermen disciples long ago, will leave everything to follow Jesus. However, the Bible says in 1Timothy 5:8, if anyone does not provide for his own, and especially for those of his household, he has denied the faith and is worse than an unbeliever. 1 Peter 3:7 also states: In the same way, you husbands must give honor to your wives. Treat your wife with understanding as you live together. She may be weaker than you are, but she is your equal partner in God’s gift of new life. Treat her as you should so your prayers will not be hindered.
The Seminaries need to provide an immediate and full disclosure of how dire the situation really is in terms of those going into the pastoral ministry. There needs to be an immediate strict quota system set in place to limit Seminary enrollment, as well as enrollment in the SMP and other avenues for church worker placements. The Seminaries also need to limit enrollment to candidates who have the training and abilities to provide for their family needs through secular employment. The ship is going down because there are too many Chiefs and not enough Indians.
The Synod should also set up a generous early retirement plan (i.e. starting at age 55) to get rid of the glut of pastors and require that they don’t continue to serve in the pastoral ministry in the LCMS - especially in the role of preaching. Also, the Concordia pension plan and other insurance plans need to be funded directly by the Synod - as the base of support will no longer be there when fewer new pastors are supporting the system.
Why provide a generous early retirement plan? The reason why is because it has to do with living out and applying the 4th Commandment to the office of the ministry. The Large Catechism states:
Thus we have two kinds of fathers presented in this commandment, fathers in blood and fathers in office, or those to whom belongs the care of the family, and those to whom belongs the care of the country. Besides these there are yet spiritual fathers; …who govern and guide us by the Word of God; as St. Paul boasts his fatherhood 1 Cor. 4:15, where he says: In Christ Jesus I have begotten you through the Gospel. Now, since they are fathers they are entitled to their honor, even above all others.