It's not just inflation George.
Having worked in the business world, from small one employee services to Fortune 10 corporations, for .. ? 20 years full time ... and more than that on and off (term contracts at request) I see some alarming symptoms. There is a tendency by us all to become blind to things as they unfold, when we have a system that has worked in the past.
I used to have to LITERALLY at least every quarter, close the door to my office. Stand up on my desk. And ask the invisible CEO in the chair, "What exactly or you doing and why?" I tried doing it as a mental exercise, but found that I was very talented at delusion and excuses, and unreasonable frameworks. I finally just had to get up and stand on my desk. Many folks bring in trusted outside consultants for that reason. In fact, I made good money doing that for a few years.
I'll just name a few of these symptoms, but there are many of these alarms going off. Short term Peter to Paul adjustments, thinking the problem is temporary and not systemic. Peter goes broke pretty quick, and Paul is left in a hole he didn't see coming. Since Pr Messer and others have been frank, I'll use an example of my own here for LCMS.
My DELTO costs were to be helped by the churches. Usually that starts with District. You go in with the assumption that District will make the payments, and you would work with them. That quickly was shown not to be. I also had support from a couple healthy churches and the local mega church. This illusion unravelled pretty quickly. Short version. District had no money, the congregations weren't really budgeted, and I was faced with asking the Mega church to consider their educational support distribution, knowing it would take dollar for dollar away from the Hispanic ministry support. (and I couldn't do that to the Hispanic ministry) Bottom line it came completely out of my pocket, and because of confusion, with a momentum of "we need $x,000 this week" bubble, from classes unpaid. I wrote the check out of pocket, but the reality of regular costs led me to propose, "I really need to skip a class, to get finances in order." I was told, "Don't worry about it you have to take the class now or else the DELTO cohort will end, we'll 'let you' work out payments, just sign up. You have to sign up now." I had classmates making payments in similar "surprises" with their credit cards at 14% + interest. I put an end to it, and transferred to ALTS, but it still took a few months for me to pay off the "take your time" accrued payments. That system was broke, and quickly gets to $10,000 and more in 'surprises of have-to-do's' (Note-SMP hasn't resolved this either)
Now we think this is growing pains of confusion. But its not. It is an alarm that the assumptions are wrong. You have to fix the assumptions. So an example is seen also in normal sem frameworks. The only churches that can afford to help with the debt pressures, don't call 'out of sem' grads. Those grads go to the churches that "can't afford the experienced pastors." ie. can't afford to help the pastor with debt. That is an alarm that something is broke.
You don't fix broken systems by figuring out a way to make them work. That's like using duct tape to get the wrong sized wrench to be functional, sort of. The duct tape ends up costing more than the right sized wrench.
A second symptom is the "virtual ponzi scheme" of cost management with "help" on price pressures. You see it in subprime housing bubbles, car "leasing", and educational programs. There is a basic real world value and cost. A house payment should balance rent as a percent of income, or be a little less in cost to value. Everything else is speculation and leveraging the future.
This is the spiral of what is truly economically affordable. Let's say I can pay $10,000 a year for school. That's my budget. Now a rich uncle gives $5,000 per student to the school for help. What happens is not that I pay "5,000". No the school says we can do even better teaching if we charge $15,000, and I can pay it because the economics say I can pay $10,000, and they get $5,000. This spirals up and up and up until the rich uncle says, "I'm broke." One note- This is NOT inflation, its a ponzi scheme effect.
The school provides a "better education" for the $15,000 instead of the $10,000. But it drifts in value. Think this way. You get a $13,000 education for your "$10,000" (and uncle's $5,000 of course.) That balloon will burst. It is why you see creative cost value distance ed etc. systems replacing the brick and mortar. Every time we try to help, instead of managed value, this ponzi scheme takes root. It is why entrepreneural companies like DEC and MCI (before they got sucked into corporate buy outs) used to restructure every five years or so. They grew with that reorg system until Verizon, IBM etc. absorbed them. Cost value, and steadily increasing value.
The school will scream "You are getting a $13,000 education for your $10,000!" and that is true. But the festering sore of $13,000 for $15,000, can not continue long term, and it won't. Sometimes you have to ask, whether you really need a marble floor in the new library, just because you have the money. And who is paying for it?
It ends like this. I can manage $10,000. My uncle throws in $5,000. You find a mega ministry to kick in $5,000. The Ice Cream company gives you $10,000. My church back home says we'll manage $5,000. The money - $35,000 a year. Guess what tuition becomes? $35,000. But wink wink you only have to find $10,000, and you can do that right? Works until my uncle dies, the megachurch decides to go to Africa, the Ice Cream company doesn't "like your theology," my church back home get's under water on their new building mortgage, and you send the $35,000 bill to me with my $10,000 check book.
Now it's true that I get a $25,000 education for my $10,000 (oops I mean $35,000 of phoney money, which isn't really there, and if I am on the front side of the ponzi scheme) and that has to be good for the church when I get there .... but you know what ....
I don't ever get there, my grandson is left with the bill and can't go to the seminary, and the churches end up paying the retired pastor $100 a week ....
That's called broken. And I see dozens of alarms like these two. FWIW
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