Poll

Who will be elected as President of The LC-MS?

Jerry Kieschnick - 1st Ballot
6 (12%)
Matt Harrison -1st Ballot
23 (46%)
Jerry Kieschnick - 2nd or Later Ballot
14 (28%)
Matt Harrison - 2nd or Later Ballot
7 (14%)

Total Members Voted: 20

Author Topic: New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?  (Read 4086 times)

Daniel L. Gard

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New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?
« on: July 02, 2010, 11:52:27 AM »
We all know that no one can predict the future. The question is not who you want to be elected but who do you think will be elected. The good part is that the Old Testament penalties for being a "false prophet" will not be applied should you be wrong.

Voelker

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Re: New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2010, 12:12:45 PM »
No "other" option? Odds are good it will be H or K, but let's not presume...

Daniel L. Gard

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Re: New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?
« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2010, 02:11:07 PM »
No "other" option? Odds are good it will be H or K, but let's not presume...

You are right, of course. But the expectation is that it will be either JK or MH.

Daniel L. Gard

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Re: New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?
« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2010, 04:41:05 PM »
No "other" option? Odds are good it will be H or K, but let's not presume...

Considering that Chaplain Gard is actually one of the candidates (and is rooming with another one) I think we can grant him a mulligan on this one.  ;)

Mike

Thanks, Mike. I need all the mulligans I can get.

It is interesting that, with only a few votes cast in the poll, the perception of election is evenly split.

Pr. Luke Zimmerman

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Re: New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?
« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2010, 09:13:10 PM »
I don't foresee Pres. Kieschnick winning on a 2nd Ballot or later. I think that he will either have a majority of delegates in favor of him or not. I don't see one of the other four candidates collecting votes that would end up being for Pres. Kieschnick on later ballots. So I would discount any Kieschnick win other than a potential 1st Ballot win.

It might be possible that the majority of delegates are not in favor of Pres. Kieschnick's reelection but don't achieve a majority on the first ballot. Perhaps there would be something close to a 45-45-10 split among Kieschnick, Harrison, and Mueller respectively. Then the majority of Mueller votes would likely migrate to Harrison on the 2nd Ballot, leading to a victory for Harrison. I don't think that a majority of delegates inclined to vote for Mueller would be in the pro-Kieschnick camp.

So I would put the possible scenarios (ranked by likelihood) as:
(1) Harrison win - 1st Ballot         [43% chance]
(2) Kieschnick win - 1st Ballot      [40% chance]
(3) Harrison win - 2nd Ballot        [16% chance]
(4) Kieschnick win - 2nd Ballot     [1% chance]
(5) Other win - Any Ballot           [0% chance]
Pr. Luke Zimmerman
Calvary Evangelical Lutheran Church -- Mechanicsburg, PA

George Erdner

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Re: New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?
« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2010, 09:16:59 PM »
Why are you folks voting? Shouldn't you follow the example of the Apostles in Acts and cast lots?  ::)

Daniel L. Gard

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Re: New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?
« Reply #6 on: July 03, 2010, 09:23:29 PM »
Why are you folks voting? Shouldn't you follow the example of the Apostles in Acts and cast lots?  ::)

Russian Roulette might work too. But not this year. Next time when I am not part of it.

Karl Hess

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Re: New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?
« Reply #7 on: July 03, 2010, 09:54:01 PM »
Why are you folks voting? Shouldn't you follow the example of the Apostles in Acts and cast lots?  ::)

Russian Roulette might work too. But not this year. Next time when I am not part of it.

That would be a good way to keep out anyone who didn't truly have a servant's heart.

carlvehse

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Re: New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?
« Reply #8 on: July 03, 2010, 10:11:45 PM »
"Shouldn't you follow the example of the Apostles in Acts and cast lots?"

And God's command for us folks to follow the example of the Apostles in Acts and cast lots in the election of officers in a synodical corporation is located where?!?

pr dtp

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Re: New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?
« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2010, 10:16:47 PM »
Why are you folks voting? Shouldn't you follow the example of the Apostles in Acts and cast lots?  ::)

Russian Roulette might work too. But not this year. Next time when I am not part of it.

M1911 with 5 rounds?

George Erdner

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Re: New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?
« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2010, 11:08:04 PM »
"Shouldn't you follow the example of the Apostles in Acts and cast lots?"

And God's command for us folks to follow the example of the Apostles in Acts and cast lots in the election of officers in a synodical corporation is located where?!?


First, please notice the  ::) gadget.

Second, I didn't say "follow the command", I said "follow the example". The remaining 11 Apostles cast lots to chose Matthias instead of Joseph called Barsabbas, who was also known as Justus to replace Judas Iscariot. It's in Acts of the Apostles 1.21-1.26

Jeff-MN

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Re: New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?
« Reply #11 on: July 04, 2010, 12:05:10 AM »
you mean they didn't run a political campaign to get elected apostle ?

carlvehse

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Re: New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?
« Reply #12 on: July 04, 2010, 12:19:53 AM »
"I didn't say "follow the command", I said "follow the example"."

The Missouri Synod does not follow the example in Acts because unless the example is associated with God's command that it be followed in the selection of synodical officers, the preferred method for election of synodical officers is made in Christian liberty. ::)

Jeremy Loesch

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Re: New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?
« Reply #13 on: July 04, 2010, 07:34:27 AM »
Chap. Gard, as your endorser and the chairman of the "Gard: Advancing Greatly, Magnanimously, Exuberantly 2010" Campaign in the greater Delmarva Region, is there something I need to know about your candidacy?  When I saw that your name wasn't included in the voting options in the poll I was dismayed, soaking my Gard 2010 kleenex with tears.   ;D

Jeremy
GARD 2010
A Lutheran pastor growing into all sorts of things.

pr dtp

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Re: New Poll: Who will be elected in Houston?
« Reply #14 on: July 04, 2010, 10:46:05 AM »
Chap. Gard, as your endorser and the chairman of the "Gard: Advancing Greatly, Magnanimously, Exuberantly 2010" Campaign in the greater Delmarva Region, is there something I need to know about your candidacy?  When I saw that your name wasn't included in the voting options in the poll I was dismayed, soaking my Gard 2010 kleenex with tears.   ;D

Jeremy
GARD 2010

Jeremy -

I believe Chaplain Gard is of the same opinion of his candidacy as of his college football preference.  He will win by affirmation, because it is impossible for him or Notre Dame to ever lose....