With the background of Employment Division v. Smith and the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, how could we judge whether Covid-19 restriction on in person worship should be allowed?
The first question that should be asked is whether these regulations are regulations of general applicability or specifically directed at worship. Crucial to that is whether churches are being treated in way that is comparable to that of other similar situations? If churches are being singled out for more restrictive regulation, then that becomes a different and more obvious question of violation of the First Amendment. The same could be said of any other group or situation (for example protests and demonstrations, concerts or movies, or any other situation where groups of people would naturally gather) singled out for more restrictive regulation. If they have a right to do what is being restricted, that burdening of rights should be questioned.
If the regulations truly are of general applicability, that does not necessarily settle the issue either way. Under the doctrine of Employment Division v. Smith if it is of general applicability it is permissible. Under the doctrine of the earlier decision of Sherbert v. Verner and the RFRA such restrictions need to undergo further scrutiny. According to the Sherbert test, those restrictions must also show that they are in furtherance of a compelling governmental interest and are the least restrictive way to achieve that interest.
Now in the case of Covid-19 restrictions, government certainly has a compelling interest to curb the spread of a potentially deadly pandemic disease. That leaves the practical question of whether or not the proposed restrictions are the least burdensome that will meet the need. Some of that would again be apparent when restrictions placed on churches are compared to restrictions on other activities, situations, and venues.
Even under the Sherbert Test, restrictions on whether or how worship services may be conducted may be permissible and not a violation of the First Amendment. It needs a degree of reasonableness from all parties to figure this out.